MLB Prediction: Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants (Friday, September 26 at 10:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | COL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +195 | -238 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| Record | 43–115 | 78–81 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Colorado Rockies · San Francisco Giants
A brutal 1-4 stretch with only 2.0 runs per game highlights how volatile the Rockies have been, yet this matchup analysis points to them as the sharper angle against a Giants squad stuck at 3-7 in their last 10. San Francisco Giants’ inconsistency at home and reliance on streaky bats creates vulnerability, while Colorado still features power upside from Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak. With both sides trending toward lower-scoring contests, this MLB prediction identifies clear value in siding with the Rockies and looking under the total.
Game Time
The action begins at Friday, September 26 at 10:15 PM ET inside Oracle Park, fly balls die quickly.
Odds & Spread Line
- Colorado Rockies: +195
- San Francisco Giants: -238
Total: 8
- Run Line — Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-108)
- Run Line — San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (-112)
Latest Team Records
Colorado Rockies: 43-115 (Win %: 0.272)
San Francisco Giants: 78-81 (Win %: 0.491)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Colorado Rockies
- Hunter Goodman: 0.277 AVG, 30 HR, 89 RBI
- Mickey Moniak: 0.27 AVG, 24 HR, 68 RBI
- Jordan Beck: 0.264 AVG, 15 HR, 52 RBI
San Francisco Giants
- Rafael Devers: 0.251 AVG, 34 HR, 107 RBI
- Willy Adames: 0.225 AVG, 28 HR, 84 RBI
- Heliot Ramos: 0.258 AVG, 20 HR, 66 RBI
Team Analysis
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies’ 1-4 record in their last 5 games with just 2.0 runs per game drives home their offensive slump. Yet, Hunter Goodman’s power threat remains an equalizer, and his ability to change games in one swing keeps Colorado dangerous even in low-output stretches. On the road, their 18-60 record is poor, but that profile inflates their underdog value in a spot where the Giants have not capitalized on home field.
Over their last 10 games at 2-8, the Rockies have lacked consistency, but Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck provide secondary support capable of sparking production. Their season-long power numbers show they can still punish mistakes, and in a game trending lower-scoring, a single timely hit could be decisive. Against a Giants team struggling to separate at home, Colorado Rockies’ underdog profile is sharper than the raw record suggests.
- Batting Average: 0.238
- Total Runs Scored: 589
- Home Runs: 156
- OBP: 0.294
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.681
- ERA: 5.99
- WHIP: 1.59
Away Record: 18-60 • Home Record: 25-56
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.9 RPG)
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have dropped 7 of their last 10 with 4.0 runs per game, reflecting uneven production despite Rafael Devers anchoring the lineup. Their 2-3 stretch in the last 5 shows no momentum, particularly at home where they sit at a flat 39-39 record. Even with Devers’ power, the supporting bats have not consistently carried the offense in key spots.
Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos provide occasional sparks, but the lack of sustained rallies has kept San Francisco from pulling away in winnable games. Their pitching keeps them competitive, yet the inability to string together offense aligns with Under tendencies. Facing a Rockies team with nothing to lose, the Giants’ inconsistency leaves them vulnerable despite holding the superior season record.
- Batting Average: 0.235
- Total Runs Scored: 691
- Home Runs: 168
- OBP: 0.311
- SLG: 0.385
- OPS: 0.696
- ERA: 3.88
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 39-42 • Home Record: 39-39
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Francisco Giants lead 7–1 (Last 8 games)
- September 03, 2025: SF 10 @ COL 8
- September 02, 2025: SF 7 @ COL 4
- September 01, 2025: SF 8 @ COL 2
- June 12, 2025: SF 7 @ COL 8
- June 11, 2025: SF 10 @ COL 7
- June 10, 2025: SF 6 @ COL 5
- May 04, 2025: COL 3 @ SF 9
- May 03, 2025: COL 3 @ SF 6
Over/Under Trends
Colorado Rockies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Rockies’ slump masks their situational value, as San Francisco Giants’ home mediocrity and recent 3-7 slide neutralize the record gap. With Goodman’s power threat and Moniak’s ability to contribute timely offense, Colorado has the sharper edge to steal this contest outright.
The Colorado Rockies at +195 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the San Francisco Giants are at 5.0 RPG and the Colorado Rockies at 2.0 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 7.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 26, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
