MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Friday, September 26 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -133 | +112 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (130) | +1.5 (-152) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| Record | 81–77 | 77–81 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Miami Marlins
The Mets have averaged 5.0 runs per game across their last five, but Miami Marlins’ steadier 7-3 mark over the past 10 tilts makes this matchup analysis lean toward the home side. The Marlins’ ability to limit opponents in lower-scoring contests at loanDepot Park creates a clear betting angle. With New York Mets’ road record sitting well below .500, this MLB prediction points to Miami controlling the pace and keeping the total in check.
Game Time
Slated for Friday, September 26 at 07:10 PM ET inside pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park with controlled scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -133
- Miami Marlins: +112
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+130)
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-152)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 81-77 (Win %: 0.513)
Miami Marlins: 77-81 (Win %: 0.487)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.271 AVG, 37 HR, 123 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.267 AVG, 43 HR, 105 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 29 HR, 83 RBI
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.248 AVG, 15 HR, 77 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.231 AVG, 21 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets enter this contest with a 2-3 mark in their last five games, reflecting inconsistency despite some recent offensive output. Their road record of 33-45 highlights persistent struggles away from home, making them less reliable in this spot. While Pete Alonso and Juan Soto provide power, the team’s inability to string together consistent wins dampens their outlook.
Over the last 10 games, New York sits at 6-4 with 6.0 runs per game, but that production has not translated into road dominance. Francisco Lindor adds balance to the lineup, yet the Mets’ pitching staff has not consistently supported their bats. Against a Marlins side that has been steadier at home recently, the Mets’ uneven form makes them a risky moneyline play.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 751
- Home Runs: 220
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.756
- ERA: 4.03
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 33-45 • Home Record: 49-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.0 RPG)
Miami Marlins
The Marlins have gone 3-2 in their last five games, producing 3.0 runs per game while relying on timely hits to secure wins. Their 7-3 stretch across the last 10 showcases improved rhythm, particularly at home where they’ve been more competitive. Kyle Stowers continues to be a reliable offensive force, giving Miami a consistent anchor in the lineup.
Otto Lopez and Agustin Ramirez have added depth, helping balance out Miami Marlins’ scoring even when run totals remain modest. Their home record of 36-42 suggests challenges earlier in the year, but recent form indicates stronger execution in this environment. With steadier play and a head-to-head edge in recent meetings, Miami is positioned as the sharper side.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 699
- Home Runs: 153
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.396
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 4.66
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 36-42
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- August 31, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 1
- August 30, 2025: MIA 11 @ NYM 8
- August 29, 2025: MIA 9 @ NYM 19
- August 28, 2025: MIA 7 @ NYM 4
- April 09, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 0
- April 08, 2025: MIA 5 @ NYM 10
- April 07, 2025: MIA 0 @ NYM 2
- April 02, 2025: NYM 6 @ MIA 5
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Marlins’ 7-3 form across their last 10 contests combined with New York Mets’ 33-45 road record reveals why the home side is the sharper play. With Kyle Stowers providing steady production and Miami holding recent head-to-head wins, the Marlins are the assertive moneyline selection.
Value-side alert: the Miami Marlins at +112 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Miami Marlins have produced 3.0 RPG and the New York Mets 5.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, BetRivers, Fanatics, BetMGM, Bovada.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How does Parlamaz make New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
