MLB Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres (Friday, September 26 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | ARI | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +126 | -149 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-173) | -1.5 (146) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| Record | 80–79 | 87–72 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Arizona Diamondbacks · San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has steadied with 4.4 runs per game across the last five contests, a key signal for this MLB prediction against a San Diego team averaging 4.6 in the same span. The Diamondbacks’ lineup is producing consistently enough to challenge a Padres group that leans heavily on home form, and both sides’ recent totals point firmly toward high scoring. With Arizona showing balance across its last 10 games and San Diego trending toward the Over as well, the betting edge sits with the Diamondbacks and a confident Over lean on the total.
Game Time
On tap at Friday, September 26 at 09:40 PM ET inside Petco Park, conservative scoring is typical.
Odds & Spread Line
- Arizona Diamondbacks: +126
- San Diego Padres: -149
Total: 8
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-173)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+146)
Latest Team Records
Arizona Diamondbacks: 80-79 (Win %: 0.503)
San Diego Padres: 87-72 (Win %: 0.547)
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Tyler Locklear (Elbow), listed as 10-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.29 AVG, 19 HR, 98 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.262 AVG, 31 HR, 84 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.284 AVG, 26 HR, 70 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.273 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.281 AVG, 24 HR, 76 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.267 AVG, 23 HR, 66 RBI
Team Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a 3-2 mark across their last five games, showing steady offensive rhythm at 4.4 runs per contest. That consistency is underpinned by the balanced production of Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, who continue to drive middle-order strength. Even on the road, where the team has battled at a 37-41 record, Arizona Diamondbacks’ offensive profile has created value against opponents with stronger overall standings.
Across the last 10 games, Arizona has gone 6-4 while averaging 4.5 runs, giving bettors confidence in their ability to sustain pressure. Geraldo Perdomo’s run production adds reliability against a Padres staff that can be tested when forced into extended innings. With totals consistently clearing recent benchmarks, the Diamondbacks’ profile supports both an upset victory and an Over result.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 782
- Home Runs: 210
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.434
- OPS: 0.759
- ERA: 4.42
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 43-38
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.5 RPG)
San Diego Padres
San Diego has been strong at home with a 49-29 record and enters this matchup off a 4-1 stretch in its last five games, producing 4.6 runs per outing. Manny Machado’s run-driving presence has been central, helping the Padres keep pace offensively. Still, despite the recent surge, their production has not separated significantly from Arizona Diamondbacks’, leaving room for value on the visitor’s side.
Over the last 10 games, San Diego sits at 6-4, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramon Laureano providing depth in the lineup. However, the Padres’ season-long run production remains modest compared to Arizona Diamondbacks’ totals, and their reliance on home form creates a situational vulnerability when facing a confident opponent. With Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense trending upward, San Diego Padres’ edge is narrowed, making them less appealing as the betting favorite.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 678
- Home Runs: 147
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 3.64
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 38-43 • Home Record: 49-29
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- August 06, 2025: SD 3 @ ARI 2
- August 05, 2025: SD 10 @ ARI 5
- August 04, 2025: SD 2 @ ARI 6
- July 10, 2025: ARI 3 @ SD 4
- July 09, 2025: ARI 8 @ SD 2
- July 08, 2025: ARI 0 @ SD 1
- July 07, 2025: ARI 6 @ SD 3
- June 15, 2025: SD 8 @ ARI 2
Over/Under Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.0 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Arizona Diamondbacks’ consistent 6-4 stretch across the last 10 games, coupled with reliable run support from Carroll, Marte, and Perdomo, elevates them as the sharper side. Their ability to generate offense on the road against a Padres team that has not separated in run production makes the Diamondbacks the more valuable moneyline play.
Value-side alert: the Arizona Diamondbacks at +126 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the San Diego Padres are at 4.6 RPG and the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
MLB Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, LowVig.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
