MLB Prediction: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers (Friday, September 26 at 08:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CIN | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +138 | -164 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (130) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Record | 81–78 | 96–63 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers enter this matchup analysis with a 96-63 record and a commanding 51-27 mark at home, while the Reds have stumbled to a 36-42 road split. Milwaukee Brewers’ consistency in limiting opponents to just 2.2 runs per game across the last five contests sets a defensive tone that aligns perfectly with an Under lean. Cincinnati Reds’ offense has been equally restrained at 2.8 RPG over that same window, reinforcing that this pairing is more about precision pitching and situational execution than offensive explosions. With Milwaukee already holding a 5–3 edge in the last eight head-to-heads, the data points squarely to the Brewers controlling the pace here.
Game Time
Game time: Friday, September 26 at 08:10 PM ET at American Family Field, roofed conditions stabilize carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cincinnati Reds: +138
- Milwaukee Brewers: -164
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-150)
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+130)
Latest Team Records
Cincinnati Reds: 81-78 (Win %: 0.509)
Milwaukee Brewers: 96-63 (Win %: 0.604)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.266 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI
- Spencer Steer: 0.24 AVG, 21 HR, 74 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.266 AVG, 29 HR, 102 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.287 AVG, 18 HR, 78 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.27 AVG, 20 HR, 77 RBI
Team Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have gone 3-2 in their last five games, averaging just 2.8 runs per contest, which makes clear their inconsistent offense on the road. Even with Elly De La Cruz producing solid power numbers this season, the lineup has not generated enough sustained pressure to tilt outcomes away from narrow margins. Their 36-42 road record reflects those struggles, limiting their reliability as an away underdog in this setting.
Spencer Steer has been a steady contributor, but Cincinnati Reds’ attack has lacked depth when compared to stronger National League rosters. Austin Hays provides some balance, yet the team’s 7-3 record over the last 10 hinges more on pitching stability than offensive firepower. Against Milwaukee Brewers’ home dominance, this profile leaves the Reds vulnerable to being contained once again.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 702
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.9
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 45-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (3.9 RPG)
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have split their last 10 games at 5-5, but their 51-27 record at home demonstrates a consistent edge that few teams match. While they’ve scored only 2.2 runs per game across the last five outings, Christian Yelich’s production remains a central driver of their offensive ceiling. That home-field advantage, combined with superior pitching metrics, positions Milwaukee as the more stable side.
Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have added balance to the order, ensuring the Brewers can generate timely runs even in lower-scoring contests. Their recent dip in scoring has not altered their ability to dictate pace, as their pitching and defense continue to suppress opposing lineups. With that structure, Milwaukee is built to outlast Cincinnati in a game projected to stay Under the total.
- Batting Average: 0.26
- Total Runs Scored: 797
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.405
- OPS: 0.738
- ERA: 3.61
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 45-36 • Home Record: 51-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Milwaukee Brewers lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- August 17, 2025: MIL 2 @ CIN 3
- August 16, 2025: MIL 6 @ CIN 5
- August 15, 2025: MIL 10 @ CIN 8
- June 04, 2025: MIL 9 @ CIN 1
- June 03, 2025: MIL 2 @ CIN 4
- June 02, 2025: MIL 3 @ CIN 2
- April 06, 2025: CIN 2 @ MIL 8
- April 05, 2025: CIN 11 @ MIL 7
Over/Under Trends
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 6.6 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Brewers’ superior home record, head-to-head edge, and ability to control tempo with both Yelich’s production and balanced secondary bats make them the sharper moneyline side. Cincinnati Reds’ road struggles and recent offensive inconsistency leave them vulnerable against a Milwaukee team that thrives in these conditions.
We’re backing the Milwaukee Brewers — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Milwaukee Brewers are at 2.2 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds at 2.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 5.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers, BetMGM, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
