MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays (Thursday, September 25 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +114 | -139 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (161) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.2 | 2.4 |
| Record | 86–71 | 90–67 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Toronto Blue Jays
Boston enters this matchup analysis with a surge of confidence, winning 4 of their last 5 while averaging 6.2 runs per game in that stretch. Toronto, by contrast, has stumbled to a 1-4 mark with just 2.4 runs per game, creating a sharp divide in offensive momentum. This MLB prediction leans toward a high-scoring environment, as both teams have combined for 8.6 runs per game recently, positioning Boston as the side with the sharper edge.
Game Time
The action begins at Thursday, September 25 at 07:05 PM ET inside Rogers Centre, roof and surface add speed.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: +114
- Toronto Blue Jays: -139
Total: 8
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+161)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 86-71 (Win %: 0.548)
Toronto Blue Jays: 90-67 (Win %: 0.573)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.267 AVG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.257 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.275 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- George Springer: 0.304 AVG, 30 HR, 80 RBI
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.295 AVG, 23 HR, 83 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have found their stride, going 4-1 in their last 5 contests while putting up 6.2 runs per game, a surge that showcases their offensive rhythm. Trevor Story’s run production has been central to this uptick, giving the lineup stability in high-leverage situations. Their road record of 41-39 emphasizes their ability to produce away from home, a key factor when facing a Toronto team struggling offensively.
Jarren Duran has complemented the attack with consistent extra-base power, while Alex Bregman’s steady on-base presence has helped sustain rallies. The Red Sox have balanced strong pitching metrics with consistent scoring, and their 6-4 mark across the last 10 games reflects a team maintaining form down the stretch. With momentum squarely in their corner, Boston enters this matchup as the sharper side.
- Batting Average: 0.255
- Total Runs Scored: 776
- Home Runs: 184
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.423
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.73
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 41-39 • Home Record: 46-32
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.9 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have faltered recently, going 1-4 in their last 5 with an anemic 2.4 runs per game, a slump that has left their offense searching for answers. Despite George Springer’s consistent power, the lineup has failed to generate sustained rallies. Even with a strong 50-27 home record, their recent offensive collapse has neutralized much of that advantage.
Bo Bichette’s production has not been enough to offset the team’s collective struggles, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has lacked the timely hits to reverse the trend. Their 4-6 mark in the last 10 games highlights a team losing rhythm at the wrong time, particularly against an opponent peaking offensively. With the lineup pressing and run totals lagging, Toronto enters this contest at a clear disadvantage.
- Batting Average: 0.265
- Total Runs Scored: 770
- Home Runs: 183
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.757
- ERA: 4.24
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 40-41 • Home Record: 50-27
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 24, 2025: BOS 7 @ TOR 1
- September 23, 2025: BOS 4 @ TOR 1
- June 29, 2025: TOR 5 @ BOS 3
- June 28, 2025: TOR 1 @ BOS 15
- June 27, 2025: TOR 9 @ BOS 0
- May 01, 2025: BOS 2 @ TOR 4
- April 30, 2025: BOS 6 @ TOR 7
- April 29, 2025: BOS 10 @ TOR 2
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.8 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Boston’s recent surge, highlighted by 6.2 runs per game across their last five and two straight wins in Toronto, emphasizes their edge. With Story driving in runs, Bregman providing consistent on-base presence, and a road record that sustains competitiveness, Boston is positioned to capitalize against a Blue Jays lineup stuck in a slump.
We rate the Boston Red Sox at +114 as the right side at current form.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Toronto Blue Jays have produced 2.4 RPG and the Boston Red Sox 6.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
