MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds (Thursday, September 25 at 12:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +138 | -167 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Record | 68–89 | 80–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh has surged with a 4-1 mark across its last five games, averaging 4.8 runs per outing, while Cincinnati has been steadier but less explosive at 3.8 per game in that same span. This betting preview highlights how the Pirates’ uptick in scoring and their 6–2 head-to-head edge against the Reds positions them as the sharper side. With both lineups producing enough offense recently to push combined averages above today’s total, the setup leans toward a high-scoring result.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Thursday, September 25 at 12:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, home-run friendly by design.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +138
- Cincinnati Reds: -167
Total: 8
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-150)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+125)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 68-89 (Win %: 0.433)
Cincinnati Reds: 80-77 (Win %: 0.51)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.243 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.24 AVG, 13 HR, 57 RBI
- Spencer Horwitz: 0.262 AVG, 9 HR, 47 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.266 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI
- Spencer Steer: 0.24 AVG, 21 HR, 74 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ 4-1 record in their last five games shows a team finding rhythm at the plate, outpacing their season average with 4.8 runs per outing. Bryan Reynolds has been a central figure in stretching innings and creating RBI opportunities, giving this offense a sharper edge. While their away record is weak overall, recent road results have signaled renewed confidence.
Andrew McCutchen’s ability to extend at-bats and Spencer Horwitz’s timely production have added needed balance to the lineup. The Pirates’ pitching staff has kept opponents in check, and the offense has rewarded that stability with consistent run support. Their recent 5-5 stretch across the last 10 games reflects a steadying group that is capable of cashing in against Cincinnati Reds’ home form.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 569
- Home Runs: 113
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.35
- OPS: 0.655
- ERA: 3.8
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 25-52 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.7 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have played to a 3-2 mark in their last five games, averaging 3.8 runs per outing, which has kept them competitive but not dominant. Elly De La Cruz’s power has been the most consistent spark, yet the team has lacked the same multi-game offensive push that Pittsburgh has shown. Playing at home has given them a steadier 44-36 record, but their run production has often plateaued in higher-leverage moments.
Spencer Steer and Austin Hays have chipped in as secondary contributors, though the attack has leaned heavily on De La Cruz to drive in runs. Their 6-4 record across the last 10 games reflects a team that is solid but not overwhelming, leaving them vulnerable against a Pirates side peaking at the right moment. The Reds’ pitching has been reliable enough to keep games close, but their inability to consistently push beyond four runs leaves the door open for Pittsburgh to steal momentum again.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 702
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.9
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 44-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- September 24, 2025: PIT 4 @ CIN 3
- September 23, 2025: PIT 4 @ CIN 2
- August 10, 2025: CIN 14 @ PIT 8
- August 09, 2025: CIN 2 @ PIT 1
- August 08, 2025: CIN 2 @ PIT 3
- August 07, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 7
- May 21, 2025: CIN 1 @ PIT 3
- May 20, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 1
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 6.7 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 4-1 surge in the last five games, paired with a 6–2 head-to-head advantage over Cincinnati, signals a team with the momentum and matchup edge. With Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen anchoring an offense that has recently outscored its season baseline, the Pirates have the sharper profile to secure another win against a Reds team that has struggled to separate at home.
The Pittsburgh Pirates at +138 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Cincinnati Reds have produced 3.8 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates 4.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
