MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds (Wednesday, September 24 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -104 | -118 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (172) | +1.5 (-217) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Record | 68–89 | 80–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds’ recent 4-1 stretch has sharpened their edge, while Pittsburgh continues to hover below .500 with uneven scoring. This matchup analysis highlights a Reds team trending upward against a Pirates squad still searching for consistency on the road. With both lineups producing enough runs to push recent totals toward the higher end, this MLB prediction leans confidently toward Cincinnati and a game that clears the number.
Game Time
This one goes at Wednesday, September 24 at 06:40 PM ET inside Great American Ball Park, fly balls leave in a hurry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: -104
- Cincinnati Reds: -118
Total: 7
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+172)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-217)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 68-89 (Win %: 0.433)
Cincinnati Reds: 80-77 (Win %: 0.51)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.244 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.24 AVG, 13 HR, 57 RBI
- Spencer Horwitz: 0.257 AVG, 9 HR, 44 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.263 AVG, 20 HR, 83 RBI
- Spencer Steer: 0.241 AVG, 21 HR, 74 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ 3-2 mark in their last five games shows a team that is competitive but not breaking through with sustained momentum. Their 4.8 runs per game in that window highlight some offensive spark, though the broader 4-6 record across the last 10 reveals inconsistency. Bryan Reynolds has been a steadying force, but the Pirates’ inability to string together wins on the road remains a glaring weakness.
Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz provide additional production, yet the Pirates’ 24-52 road record lays bare their lack of confidence away from home. They are scoring just 3.8 runs per game in their last 10, signaling that any offensive rhythm has been intermittent. This inconsistency aligns poorly against a Cincinnati squad that thrives at home and has been in better rhythm overall.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 561
- Home Runs: 112
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.35
- OPS: 0.655
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 24-52 • Home Record: 44-37
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.8 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have surged with a 4-1 record in their last five and 6-4 across their last 10, proving they are closing the season with momentum. Their 44-35 home record reinforces how comfortable they are in this ballpark, where run production has remained steady even when totals are modest. Elly De La Cruz continues to drive the offense with power and run creation that tilts matchups in Cincinnati Reds’ favor.
Supporting production from Spencer Steer and Austin Hays keeps the Reds’ lineup balanced, preventing opponents from pitching around their top bat. Their recent 3.4 runs per game may look modest, but paired with strong pitching and a stable bullpen, it has been enough to secure wins. Against a Pirates team that struggles to replicate scoring consistency on the road, the Reds’ home-field edge and recent form make them the superior side.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 697
- Home Runs: 161
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 44-35
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 23, 2025: PIT 4 @ CIN 2
- August 10, 2025: CIN 14 @ PIT 8
- August 09, 2025: CIN 2 @ PIT 1
- August 08, 2025: CIN 2 @ PIT 3
- August 07, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 7
- May 21, 2025: CIN 1 @ PIT 3
- May 20, 2025: CIN 0 @ PIT 1
- May 19, 2025: CIN 7 @ PIT 1
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.1 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 7.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Reds’ 4-1 surge in their last five, combined with a 44-35 home record, makes them the clear side against a Pirates team that has shown no stability on the road. With Elly De La Cruz producing consistently and balanced support from Spencer Steer and Austin Hays, Cincinnati holds both the form and situational edge to deliver another win.
This sets up cleanly for the Cincinnati Reds to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Cincinnati Reds at 3.4 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 4.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 8.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.0. That points toward the Over 7.0.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Fanatics, Bovada, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 24, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
