MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs (Wednesday, September 24 at 08:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -103 | -122 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-211) | -1.5 (170) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.4 | 2.8 |
| Record | 81–76 | 88–69 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada, Caesars +4 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Chicago Cubs
The Cubs enter this matchup analysis on a five-game skid, but their overall 88-69 record and strong home profile still demand respect against the Mets. New York has averaged 6.4 runs per game across its last five contests, yet its 32-44 road record exposes vulnerability away from home. With both lineups showing consistent power numbers and recent totals trending high, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Cubs to rebound and the run count to push past the posted number.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Wednesday, September 24 at 08:05 PM ET at iconic Wrigley Field, wind dictates the number.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -103
- Chicago Cubs: -122
Total: 7
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-211)
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+170)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 81-76 (Win %: 0.516)
Chicago Cubs: 88-69 (Win %: 0.561)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.274 AVG, 37 HR, 122 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.267 AVG, 42 HR, 104 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 28 HR, 80 RBI
Chicago Cubs
- Michael Busch: 0.256 AVG, 30 HR, 82 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.245 AVG, 29 HR, 90 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.242 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets have managed a 3-2 record over their last five games, producing 6.4 runs per game in that span and showing flashes of offensive rhythm. Despite this recent scoring push, their 32-44 road record exposes a pattern of inconsistency whenever they leave New York. Pete Alonso and Juan Soto provide the power the lineup leans on, but the team’s ability to sustain that output away from home remains questionable against a Cubs team with a superior overall record.
Over the last 10 games, the Mets have split results at 5-5 while averaging 5.4 runs per game, a balanced but not dominant trend. Francisco Lindor has added depth to the lineup, yet their reliance on big bats has not consistently solved their road struggles. With a sub-.500 away mark, bettors must weigh whether the Mets’ recent offensive surge can truly translate in Chicago against a Cubs side built to defend home turf.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 739
- Home Runs: 215
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.756
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 32-44 • Home Record: 49-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.4 RPG)
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 0-5 skid in their last five games with just 2.8 runs per contest highlights a slump, but their 46-30 home record shows why they remain dangerous at Wrigley. Michael Busch’s power numbers anchor an offense that is still built to break out of slumps quickly. Despite the recent dip, the Cubs’ strong season-long form and home dominance make them the more reliable side compared to the Mets’ road woes.
Over the last 10 games, Chicago has gone 4-6 while averaging 3.8 runs per game, but their consistency at home has been the stabilizer all year. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki provide balance to the order, ensuring multiple threats across the lineup. With a higher overall win percentage and proven home-field strength, the Cubs are positioned to capitalize against a Mets team that has struggled away from Citi Field.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 750
- Home Runs: 209
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.746
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.18
Away Record: 42-39 • Home Record: 46-30
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 23, 2025: NYM 9 @ CHC 7
- May 11, 2025: CHC 2 @ NYM 6
- May 10, 2025: CHC 6 @ NYM 5
- May 09, 2025: CHC 2 @ NYM 7
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 7.5 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cubs’ superior overall record, strong 46-30 home mark, and lineup depth anchored by Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki provide a clear edge over a Mets team that has struggled to translate offensive bursts on the road. Despite a poor recent stretch, the Cubs’ home dominance and season-long consistency make them the more reliable side to back in this spot.
Confidence sits with the Chicago Cubs based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Chicago Cubs at 2.8 RPG and the New York Mets at 6.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.0. That points toward the Over 7.0.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 24, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How does Parlamaz make New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs MLB predictions?
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