Introduction

More MLB picks: Los Angeles Dodgers · Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 stretch across their last five, averaging 4.2 runs per game, which signals sharper offensive rhythm compared to earlier inconsistencies. Arizona has been steadier at home, but the Dodgers’ deeper lineup and recent surge in confidence tilt the balance toward Los Angeles. With both teams averaging under 5 runs per game in their last five, the pace projects more controlled scoring, reinforcing value on the Dodgers and the Under.

Game Time

Coverage starts at Tuesday, September 23 at 09:40 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.

Odds & Spread Line

• Los Angeles Dodgers: -154
• Arizona Diamondbacks: +130

Total: 9

• Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+105)
• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-125)

Latest Team Records

Los Angeles Dodgers: 88-68 (Win %: 0.564)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 79-77 (Win %: 0.506)

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Roki Sasaki (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Will Smith (Hand), listed as 10-Day-IL; Michael Kopech (Knee), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Tyler Locklear (Elbow), listed as 10-Day-IL; Pavin Smith (Quadriceps), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Key Player Stats

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Shohei Ohtani: 0.283 AVG, 53 HR, 99 RBI
• Freddie Freeman: 0.292 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI
• Andy Pages: 0.278 AVG, 25 HR, 82 RBI

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.29 AVG, 19 HR, 97 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.26 AVG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
• Ketel Marte: 0.28 AVG, 26 HR, 70 RBI

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers’ 88-68 record reflects a team built for October, and their 4-1 mark across the last five games showcases renewed momentum. Shohei Ohtani’s power presence continues to anchor the lineup, while Freddie Freeman provides balance with consistent contact hitting. Offensively, their road record of 36-39 demands sharper execution, but recent scoring form suggests they are trending upward at the right time.

The last 10 games at 6-4 with 5.6 runs per game highlight a reliable offensive rhythm, and Andy Pages’ contributions add depth beyond the marquee bats. The Dodgers’ ability to generate steady run production despite injuries drives home their lineup resilience. Their current form positions them as the superior side against Arizona in this spot, particularly with confidence building late in the season.

• Batting Average: 0.254
• Total Runs Scored: 794
• Home Runs: 232
• OBP: 0.329
• SLG: 0.44
• OPS: 0.769
• ERA: 4.02
• WHIP: 1.26

Away Record: 36-39 • Home Record: 52-29
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.6 RPG)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks’ 79-77 record keeps them in the hunt, but their 3-2 mark over the last five with 4.4 runs per game indicates modest consistency rather than dominance. Geraldo Perdomo has been a steady contributor, yet the offense has leaned heavily on Corbin Carroll’s power to keep pace. Their 42-36 home record provides stability, though it has not been enough to offset stronger competition.

Across the last 10 games, their 7-3 run shows improved rhythm, but Ketel Marte’s production will need to sustain for them to match the Dodgers’ firepower. While their lineup has shown flashes, their pitching staff’s higher ERA leaves them exposed against efficient opponents. Facing a Dodgers team trending upward, Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent scoring profile looks insufficient to secure betting value on their side.

• Batting Average: 0.252
• Total Runs Scored: 773
• Home Runs: 209
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.435
• OPS: 0.76
• ERA: 4.43
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 42-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.4 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)

• August 31, 2025: ARI 4 @ LAD 5
• August 30, 2025: ARI 6 @ LAD 1
• August 29, 2025: ARI 3 @ LAD 0
• May 21, 2025: ARI 1 @ LAD 3
• May 20, 2025: ARI 3 @ LAD 4
• May 19, 2025: ARI 9 @ LAD 5
• May 11, 2025: LAD 8 @ ARI 1
• May 10, 2025: LAD 0 @ ARI 3

Over/Under Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Dodgers’ stronger last five performance and superior run differential in recent contests give them the decisive edge over Arizona. With Ohtani, Freeman, and Pages providing balanced production and their overall momentum favoring them down the stretch, Los Angeles is the clear betting side to back here.

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Markets point to the Los Angeles Dodgers as the correct angle.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.4 RPG and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4.2, giving context for the number.

With both clubs averaging 8.6 runs per game recently, we’re expecting a Under 9.0 outcome.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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