MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs (Tuesday, September 23 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +102 | -127 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-212) | -1.5 (180) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.4 | 3.0 |
| Record | 80–76 | 88–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 46-29 home record provides a decisive edge against a Mets team that has stumbled to 31-44 on the road. This MLB prediction leans heavily on situational strength, where Chicago Cubs’ ability to grind out wins at Wrigley contrasts with New York Mets’ inconsistency away from home. With the Mets averaging 5.4 runs over their last five compared to the Cubs’ 3.0, the combined scoring environment still favors action on the total, reinforcing confidence in a Cubs victory with value on the Over.
Game Time
On tap at Tuesday, September 23 at 07:40 PM ET inside Wrigley Field, totals move with the breeze.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: +102
- Chicago Cubs: -127
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-212)
- Run Line — Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+180)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 80-76 (Win %: 0.513)
Chicago Cubs: 88-68 (Win %: 0.564)
Injury Report
The New York Mets are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Chicago Cubs are missing Ryan Brasier (Groin), listed as 15-Day-IL; Justin Steele (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.274 AVG, 37 HR, 122 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.267 AVG, 42 HR, 104 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.267 AVG, 28 HR, 80 RBI
Chicago Cubs
- Michael Busch: 0.256 AVG, 30 HR, 82 RBI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 0.245 AVG, 29 HR, 90 RBI
- Seiya Suzuki: 0.242 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets have posted a 2-3 mark over their last five games, averaging 5.4 runs, which reflects inconsistency rather than dominance. Their road struggles are undeniable, with just 31 wins in 75 away contests dragging down their overall record. Pete Alonso provides reliable power, but the Mets’ road rhythm has lacked the consistency needed to trust them in this spot.
Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor have carried offensive weight, yet the team’s 4-6 record across the last ten highlights their inability to sustain momentum. Even with respectable overall run production, the Mets’ away splits suggest vulnerability against stronger home teams. Against a Cubs club that thrives in its stadium, New York Mets’ lack of road confidence is a glaring liability.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 739
- Home Runs: 215
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.756
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 31-44 • Home Record: 49-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.9 RPG)
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ 1-4 mark over their last five games highlights recent struggles, but their 46-29 home record offsets those concerns with a clear advantage at Wrigley. Michael Busch has delivered consistent power in the middle of the order, ensuring the Cubs remain a scoring threat despite the dip in form. That home dominance is the decisive factor separating them from a Mets team that falters away from Citi Field.
Over their last ten games, the Cubs sit at 5-5 with 3.7 runs per game, showing an average scoring pace that plays up in familiar conditions. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have been steady contributors, and their production at home gives Chicago the stability the Mets lack on the road. With a stronger season record and superior venue splits, the Cubs are positioned to control this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 750
- Home Runs: 209
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.746
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.18
Away Record: 42-39 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- May 11, 2025: CHC 2 @ NYM 6
- May 10, 2025: CHC 6 @ NYM 5
- May 09, 2025: CHC 2 @ NYM 7
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Chicago Cubs’ last 10 games have averaged 6.9 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cubs’ superior home record and balanced offensive production from Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki provide the decisive edge against a Mets team that falters on the road. Recent numbers show Chicago holding steadier form at Wrigley, making them the clear side to back with confidence.
This sets up cleanly for the Chicago Cubs to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Chicago Cubs have produced 3.0 RPG and the New York Mets 5.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 23, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
