MLB Prediction: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians (Tuesday, September 23 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | DET | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -167 | +142 |
| Total (O/U) | — | |
| Run Line | — | — |
| Last 5 RPG | 1.8 | 5.0 |
| Record | 85–70 | 84–71 |
| Lines: FanDuel | ||
More MLB picks: Detroit Tigers · Cleveland Guardians
The Detroit Tigers enter this matchup in the midst of a five-game skid, producing just 1.8 runs per game across that stretch, while the Cleveland Guardians have surged with nine wins in their last ten. That contrast in form sets the tone for this MLB prediction, with one team trending downward offensively and the other finding consistent scoring balance. Given Cleveland Guardians’ current rhythm and Detroit Tigers’ scoring slump, the sharper betting edge points clearly toward the Guardians and a lower-scoring contest overall.
Game Time
Slated for Tuesday, September 23 at 06:40 PM ET at Progressive Field, conditions can swing totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Detroit Tigers: -167
- Cleveland Guardians: +142
Total: 8.5
Latest Team Records
Detroit Tigers: 85-70 (Win %: 0.548)
Cleveland Guardians: 84-71 (Win %: 0.542)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.258 AVG, 34 HR, 108 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.245 AVG, 31 HR, 78 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.254 AVG, 26 HR, 62 RBI
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.282 AVG, 30 HR, 81 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.235 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.276 AVG, 10 HR, 54 RBI
Team Analysis
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ recent stretch has been disastrous, dropping all of their last five contests while averaging only 1.8 runs per game. That slump has exposed an offense that cannot sustain pressure despite the power potential of Riley Greene. On the road, their 39-36 record shows some balance, but the lack of scoring momentum makes them unreliable in this spot.
Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter remain capable of driving in runs, but neither has been able to lift the lineup through this extended cold spell. With just one win in their last ten games, confidence is clearly shaken. Facing a Cleveland staff that has been steady at home, Detroit Tigers’ path to offensive production looks extremely narrow.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 741
- Home Runs: 193
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.417
- OPS: 0.734
- ERA: 3.97
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 39-36 • Home Record: 46-35
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (1.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.5 RPG)
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have surged with a 4-1 mark over their last five and an impressive 9-1 record in their last ten, averaging 4.6 runs per game during that stretch. Jose Ramirez continues to anchor the lineup with timely production, and that stability has translated into results at Progressive Field. Their 41-34 home record drives home the advantage they carry into this matchup.
Steven Kwan’s contact ability and Kyle Manzardo’s power supplement an offense that has been steady enough to support a strong pitching staff. The Guardians’ ability to control tempo at home has been evident in their recent run, where they’ve consistently held opponents in check while generating enough offense to win comfortably. Against a Tigers team in a prolonged slump, Cleveland Guardians’ balance is decisive.
- Batting Average: 0.227
- Total Runs Scored: 614
- Home Runs: 162
- OBP: 0.297
- SLG: 0.374
- OPS: 0.672
- ERA: 3.69
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 43-38 • Home Record: 41-34
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (4.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 18, 2025: CLE 3 @ DET 1
- September 17, 2025: CLE 4 @ DET 0
- September 16, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 5
- July 06, 2025: DET 7 @ CLE 2
- July 05, 2025: DET 1 @ CLE 0
- July 04, 2025: DET 2 @ CLE 1
- May 25, 2025: CLE 0 @ DET 5
- May 24, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 5
Over/Under Trends
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 6.3 combined runs, with 1 game clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Guardians’ 9-1 run, combined with their steady home record and recent head-to-head success, makes them the clear moneyline side. With Jose Ramirez driving production and the Tigers stuck in a prolonged offensive slump, Cleveland has every edge to extend their surge in this matchup.
Form and matchup create value on the Cleveland Guardians at +142.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Cleveland Guardians have produced 5.0 RPG and the Detroit Tigers 1.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 6.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How does Parlamaz make Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
