MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox (Sunday, September 21 at 02:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SD | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -185 | +150 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Record | 83–71 | 58–96 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · Chicago White Sox
San Diego enters this interleague matchup analysis against Chicago with a balanced 5-5 record over its last 10 games, averaging 4.6 runs per contest, while the White Sox have stumbled to 3-7 in that same span. This MLB prediction is shaped by the Padres’ steadier scoring output compared to Chicago’s 3.0 RPG over their last 10, which speaks to a clear offensive gap. With both sides leaning toward lower-scoring outcomes, the Padres’ ability to control pace and apply pressure makes them the superior betting angle here.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Sunday, September 21 at 02:10 PM ET inside Guaranteed Rate Field, run creation trends higher.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Diego Padres: -185
- Chicago White Sox: +150
Total: 8
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-105)
- Run Line — Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-115)
Latest Team Records
San Diego Padres: 83-71 (Win %: 0.539)
Chicago White Sox: 58-96 (Win %: 0.377)
Injury Report
The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Chicago White Sox are missing Martin Perez (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.277 AVG, 26 HR, 92 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.285 AVG, 24 HR, 76 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.266 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI
Chicago White Sox
- Lenyn Sosa: 0.261 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI
- Andrew Benintendi: 0.24 AVG, 20 HR, 62 RBI
- Miguel Vargas: 0.228 AVG, 15 HR, 55 RBI
Team Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ 2-3 mark in their last 5 games shows some inconsistency, but their offense has still generated 4.2 RPG in that span. While the away record sits below .500, the lineup has proven capable of producing runs in bursts, particularly when Manny Machado sets the tone. This balance gives San Diego an edge against weaker opposition, with enough firepower to separate themselves late in games.
Over the last 10 outings, the Padres are 5-5 with 4.6 RPG, reflecting stability even without extended winning streaks. Ramon Laureano and Fernando Tatis Jr. have provided reliable production, ensuring the offense doesn’t fall into prolonged slumps. With a pitching staff carrying a low ERA and WHIP, San Diego Padres’ structure points toward a steady moneyline advantage despite recent mixed results.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 655
- Home Runs: 140
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.7
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 37-43 • Home Record: 47-28
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.6 RPG)
Chicago White Sox
Chicago’s 1-4 record in the last 5 games with just 3.2 RPG highlights a struggling offense. Even with Lenyn Sosa showing flashes of power, the lineup has lacked depth and consistency. Playing at home has not provided a spark, as the White Sox remain below par with a 33-47 home record.
Looking over their last 10 games, the White Sox are 3-7, averaging only 3.0 RPG, which speaks to a prolonged scoring drought. Andrew Benintendi has chipped in, but overall run creation has been unreliable, leaving the pitching staff with little margin. With Miguel Vargas also unable to elevate the attack, Chicago lacks the sustained offensive presence needed to match San Diego Padres’ balance.
- Batting Average: 0.233
- Total Runs Scored: 613
- Home Runs: 155
- OBP: 0.302
- SLG: 0.373
- OPS: 0.674
- ERA: 4.22
- WHIP: 1.36
Away Record: 25-50 • Home Record: 33-47
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- September 20, 2025: SD 7 @ CHW 3
- September 19, 2025: SD 3 @ CHW 4
Over/Under Trends
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Chicago White Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 7.1 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
San Diego Padres’ steadier run production paired with a stronger pitching profile gives them the clear advantage against a Chicago team struggling to score. With recent head-to-head results showing the Padres capable of breaking open games and consistent contributions from their core hitters, backing San Diego is the most reliable path to profit.
We’re backing the San Diego Padres — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Chicago White Sox at 3.2 RPG and the San Diego Padres at 4.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 7.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
