MLB Prediction: Oakland Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Sunday, September 21 at 01:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | OAK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -108 | -112 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (150) | +1.5 (-184) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Record | 73–82 | 66–89 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Oakland Athletics · Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has dropped four of its last five while averaging just 2.0 runs per game, yet this interleague MLB prediction still favors them at home against an Oakland club that has been inconsistent on the road. The Athletics are only .500 away from home and their 3.0 RPG over the last five highlights an offense that struggles to sustain rallies. With both offenses trending below league scoring norms, the sharper angle comes from trusting Pittsburgh Pirates’ superior home split and backing a lower-scoring contest.
Game Time
The action begins at Sunday, September 21 at 01:35 PM ET inside PNC Park, scoring tends to flatten.
Odds & Spread Line
- Oakland Athletics: -108
- Pittsburgh Pirates: -112
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Oakland Athletics: -1.5 (+150)
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-184)
Latest Team Records
Oakland Athletics: 73-82 (Win %: 0.471)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 66-89 (Win %: 0.426)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Oakland Athletics
- Brent Rooker: 0.265 AVG, 30 HR, 87 RBI
- Tyler Soderstrom: 0.277 AVG, 24 HR, 90 RBI
- Shea Langeliers: 0.261 AVG, 30 HR, 68 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.243 AVG, 15 HR, 72 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.242 AVG, 13 HR, 56 RBI
- Spencer Horwitz: 0.261 AVG, 9 HR, 43 RBI
Team Analysis
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics enter with a 73-82 record and have split their last five at 3-2, scoring 3.0 RPG in that stretch. Their road mark sits at an even 40-40, which spotlights inconsistency when traveling. Brent Rooker has been one of the few dependable run producers, but the overall output has not been enough to cover defensive lapses.
In their last 10, Oakland improved to 7-3 with 4.1 RPG, showing occasional bursts but still failing to dominate games. Tyler Soderstrom provides some lineup depth, yet the offense remains streaky when away from home. Shea Langeliers has contributed power, but the team’s rhythm away from their own park has not been convincing enough to trust against a home-strong opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 709
- Home Runs: 214
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.435
- OPS: 0.755
- ERA: 4.69
- WHIP: 1.36
Away Record: 40-40 • Home Record: 33-42
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.1 RPG)
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates carry a 66-89 record but are far stronger at home with a 43-37 mark. Despite a 1-4 record in their last five and just 2.0 RPG, they remain competitive in low-scoring contests thanks to their pitching staff holding a 3.88 ERA. Bryan Reynolds has been steady in run production, giving them a reliable bat in tight games at PNC Park.
Over the last 10, Pittsburgh has gone just 2-8 with 2.6 RPG, clearly in a slump offensively. Yet Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz offer experienced at-bats that help the Pirates grind games down to their pace. Given how consistently they play tighter games at home, their situational edge aligns with a moneyline lean toward Pittsburgh in a controlled scoring environment.
- Batting Average: 0.23
- Total Runs Scored: 548
- Home Runs: 108
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.347
- OPS: 0.651
- ERA: 3.88
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 23-52 • Home Record: 43-37
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (2.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- September 20, 2025: OAK 0 @ PIT 2
- September 19, 2025: OAK 4 @ PIT 3
Over/Under Trends
Oakland Athletics’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 6.2 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 43-37 home record and ability to keep games close with a sub-4.00 ERA make them a more trustworthy side than Oakland Athletics’ .500 road form. With Bryan Reynolds anchoring the lineup and recent head-to-head evidence showing Pittsburgh Pirates’ ability to win tight games, the Pirates are the sharper moneyline choice.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Pittsburgh Pirates at 2.0 RPG and the Oakland Athletics at 3.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 5.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: BetRivers, FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
