MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Saturday, September 20 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -103 | -120 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (155) | +1.5 (-190) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| Record | 84–70 | 75–79 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays
Boston enters this matchup analysis at 3-2 over its last five, averaging 5.2 runs per game, while Tampa Bay has produced 3.8 RPG across the same stretch. That recent output lifts the combined average to 9.0 runs, a clear indicator of offensive potential above the posted total. With Tampa Bay holding a stronger home split and featuring multiple power bats, this MLB prediction leans toward the Rays delivering value on their own field while the scoring environment favors an Over outcome.
Game Time
This one goes at Saturday, September 20 at 07:05 PM ET inside the dome at Tropicana Field, carry is limited.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -103
- Tampa Bay Rays: -120
Total: 8
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+155)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-190)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 84-70 (Win %: 0.545)
Tampa Bay Rays: 75-79 (Win %: 0.487)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Tampa Bay Rays are missing Manuel Rodriguez (Forearm), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.265 AVG, 25 HR, 94 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.261 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.259 AVG, 44 HR, 108 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.3 AVG, 25 HR, 82 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.258 AVG, 29 HR, 80 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox sit at 84-70 overall, carrying a balanced profile but without sustained momentum in recent weeks. Their last 5 games show a 3-2 record with 5.2 RPG, a respectable mark that demonstrates offensive capability but not dominance. Trevor Story has been the steadying presence, yet the team’s 38-38 away record underlines the challenge of translating production into consistent road wins.
Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu have offered additional offensive depth, but the Red Sox remain an inconsistent road team that struggles to separate in tight contests. Their 5-5 mark over the last 10 games highlights the lack of rhythm, leaving them vulnerable against a Rays side that matches up well at home. With a neutral trend and no decisive edge away from Fenway, Boston’s outlook in this spot is limited.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 756
- Home Runs: 182
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.75
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 38-38 • Home Record: 46-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ season mark of 75-79 looks underwhelming, but their 40-39 home record provides a foundation for betting value. Their last 5 games stand at 2-3 with 3.8 RPG, a modest number, yet Junior Caminero’s power output ensures they can flip games quickly. Tampa Bay Rays’ ability to produce runs in bursts positions them as a live side against Boston’s neutral form.
Yandy Diaz’s consistency and Brandon Lowe’s balanced production give Tampa Bay a multi-faceted attack that is better supported in their home environment. The Rays’ 3-7 record over the last 10 games reflects inconsistency, but the matchup against a road-split Boston team creates a favorable window. With their lineup depth and situational edge at Tropicana, Tampa Bay projects as the stronger play here.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 686
- Home Runs: 176
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.718
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 40-39
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 7–1 (Last 8 games)
- September 19, 2025: BOS 11 @ TB 7
- July 13, 2025: TB 1 @ BOS 4
- July 12, 2025: TB 0 @ BOS 1
- July 11, 2025: TB 4 @ BOS 5
- July 10, 2025: TB 3 @ BOS 4
- June 11, 2025: TB 3 @ BOS 4
- June 10, 2025: TB 1 @ BOS 3
- June 09, 2025: TB 10 @ BOS 8
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays’ home stability combined with the run-producing ceiling of Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Brandon Lowe makes them the sharper side despite recent inconsistencies. Boston’s neutral 5-5 stretch and .500 road record fail to project the same upside, giving the Rays the situational edge to secure this matchup.
The Tampa Bay Rays are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Tampa Bay Rays at 3.8 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 5.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Fanatics, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 20, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
