MLB Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Saturday, September 20 at 08:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PHI | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +100 | -110 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (155) | +1.5 (-190) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| Record | 91–62 | 77–76 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 11.4 total runs, with nine of those contests clearing today’s total, a clear signal for an aggressive scoring environment in this MLB prediction against the Diamondbacks. Philadelphia has been strong overall, but Arizona Diamondbacks’ balanced lineup and situational edge at home make them the sharper side to back. With both teams generating consistent offense recently, the expectation tilts toward a high-scoring contest where Arizona capitalizes on its home rhythm.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Saturday, September 20 at 08:10 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Philadelphia Phillies: +100
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -110
Total: 9
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+155)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-190)
Latest Team Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 91-62 (Win %: 0.595)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 77-76 (Win %: 0.503)
Injury Report
The Philadelphia Phillies are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Juan Burgos (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Tyler Locklear (Elbow), listed as 10-Day-IL; Pavin Smith (Quadriceps), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.243 AVG, 53 HR, 128 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 27 HR, 75 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.289 AVG, 19 HR, 97 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.258 AVG, 30 HR, 78 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.275 AVG, 25 HR, 66 RBI
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies enter with a strong overall record, but their most recent five games sit at 3–2 (5.2 RPG), a stretch that suggests neutral momentum rather than full dominance. Kyle Schwarber’s power continues to anchor the lineup, yet the team’s road record of 41–38 highlights inconsistency away from home. That profile raises concerns when facing a team that thrives on its home field.
Bryce Harper and Trea Turner provide steady production, but Philadelphia has leaned heavily on late-game bursts rather than sustained scoring in recent contests. The Phillies’ last 10 games at 8–2 (6.8 RPG) show offensive capability, though those results tilt more heavily toward home performance than travel form. Against a balanced Arizona lineup, this road test sharpens the risk profile for Philadelphia backers.
- Batting Average: 0.259
- Total Runs Scored: 743
- Home Runs: 197
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.431
- OPS: 0.761
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 41-38 • Home Record: 51-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.8 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ last five games sit at 3–2 (4.6 RPG), a balanced run that reflects steady offense and resilience. Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to generate runs has kept their attack stable, while home form at 40–36 reinforces their ability to control games in this setting. That combination positions Arizona to exploit Philadelphia Phillies’ less dominant road profile.
Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte add depth across the order, ensuring production does not rely on a single bat. Their last 10 games at 5–5 (4.9 RPG) show a consistent scoring base that aligns with their season-long offensive totals. With Philadelphia showing vulnerability away from home, Arizona Diamondbacks’ home rhythm and balanced lineup make them the sharper side to back here.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 758
- Home Runs: 205
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.434
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 4.44
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 37-41 • Home Record: 40-36
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Philadelphia Phillies lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 19, 2025: PHI 8 @ ARI 2
- May 04, 2025: ARI 11 @ PHI 9
- May 03, 2025: ARI 2 @ PHI 7
- May 02, 2025: ARI 2 @ PHI 3
Over/Under Trends
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 11.4 total runs, with 9 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 10.2 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Arizona Diamondbacks’ home record and steady offensive base give them the sharper edge against a Phillies team that has been less reliable on the road. With contributions coming from Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks’ lineup balance and situational advantage point directly to them as the side to back.
This sets up cleanly for the Arizona Diamondbacks to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Arizona Diamondbacks have produced 4.6 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies 5.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, BetUS.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 20, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
