EPL Prediction: Leeds United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (Saturday, September 20 at 02:00 PM ET)
| Market / Trend | LEE | WOL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +175 | +165 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | -0.5 (-101) | +0.5 (-109) |
| Last 5 GPG | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Record | 1-1-2 | 0-0-4 |
| Lines: FanDuel, Tipico, Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Leeds United · Wolverhampton Wanderers
Introduction
Wolverhampton Wanderers have stumbled through the early season with four straight losses and no points, while Leeds United have at least managed to secure a win and a draw. Even with the small early-season sample, the contrast in momentum is sharp, and it sets the tone for this matchup. Leeds’ ability to keep clean sheets and capitalize on narrow chances gives them a decisive edge against a Wolves side still searching for stability.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, September 20 at 02:00 PM ET at Molineux Stadium.
Odds
- Leeds United: +175
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +165
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Leeds United: -0.5 (-101)
Handicap — Wolverhampton Wanderers: +0.5 (-109)
Latest Team Records
Leeds United: 1-1-2 (Win %: 0.250 )
Wolverhampton Wanderers: 0-0-4 (Win %: 0.000 )
Lineups
No confirmed lineups yet.
Team Analysis
Leeds United
Leeds have leaned on defensive resilience to stay competitive, registering two clean sheets despite modest attacking returns. With 24 total shots producing just one goal, their conversion rate is low, but the structure behind them has limited damage and kept games within reach. Facing a Wolves side that has failed to win in four, Leeds’ ability to grind out results through discipline and defensive focus positions them as the more reliable side.
Their home form has been the difference-maker, with a win and a draw at Elland Road, presenting a fantastic opportunity to improve road form. Recent averages of 0.2 goals per game over the last five and ten outings highlight inefficiency, but the consistency of their defensive baseline provides a platform to break through against opponents in worse form. This balance of control and timely execution makes Leeds a credible pick to secure another result here.
- Goals: 1
- Total Shots: 24
- Shots on Target: 8
- Total Passes: 1573
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 5
- Hit Woodwork: 1
- Offsides: 5
- Shot Conversion: 4.2%
- Passes per Shot: 65.54
- Discipline: Y:5 • R:0 • Off:5
Away Record: 0-0-2 • Home Record: 1-1-0 • Last 5: 1-1-2 (0.2 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-2 (0.2 GPG)
Leeds United: 24 total shots (season) • 8 on target (season)
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves’ home struggles have been glaring, with two straight losses and no clean sheets to show for it. While they’ve managed 11 shots on target from 23 attempts, the lack of finishing touch has left them exposed. Their 8.7% conversion rate looks better than Leeds on paper, but without defensive solidity, it hasn’t translated into results.
Over their last five and ten matches, Wolves have averaged 2.0 goals per game, yet the inability to convert those numbers into wins underscores deeper issues. Discipline has also been a concern with nine yellows already, disrupting rhythm in key moments. Against a Leeds side that thrives on patience and compact defending, Wolves’ chaotic tendencies at home suggest another uphill battle.
- Goals: 2
- Total Shots: 23
- Shots on Target: 11
- Total Passes: 1568
- Yellow Cards: 9
- Offsides: 8
- Shot Conversion: 8.7%
- Passes per Shot: 68.17
- Discipline: Y:9 • R:0 • Off:8
Home Record: 0-0-2 • Away Record: 0-0-2 • Last 5: 0-0-4 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 0-0-4 (2.0 GPG)
Wolverhampton Wanderers: 23 total shots (season) • 11 on target (season)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Wolverhampton Wanderers’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Leeds United’s have averaged 0.2. Combined recent output 2.2 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Leeds United’s defensive stability and ability to secure results outweigh Wolverhampton Wanderers’ winless start and inconsistency. Wolves have shown volume but no payoff, while Leeds have proven they can manage matches and protect leads. With their structure and Wolves’ lack of form, Leeds are the clear value side to back.
Draw safety: Med — low combined PPG; modest ML pricing on both sides.
Edge sits with Leeds United across form and goal threat.
Over/Under Prediction
Wolverhampton Wanderers have produced 2.0 GPG and Leeds United 0.2 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 2.2 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Under 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- FanDuel
- Tipico
- Pinnacle
Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.
EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How often are picks updated?
We update near confirmed lineups, injuries, and big odds moves. Check back close to kickoff for final notes.
Why do we show Last-5 GPG?
Last-5 GPG shows current scoring form. It updates faster than season numbers. We pair it with xG so one wild result does not swing the view.
How does Parlamaz handicap Leeds United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
