MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres vs New York Mets (Wednesday, September 17 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SD | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -109 | -110 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (155) | +1.5 (-193) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Record | 82–68 | 77–73 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Diego Padres · New York Mets
The Mets’ home record of 47-29 highlights a clear betting edge, and this MLB prediction points directly to their ability to turn Citi Field into a decisive factor. With the Padres averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last five and the Mets chipping in 4.4, recent scoring trends align with an Over lean on the total of 8. Both teams have shown offensive consistency, but the Mets’ lineup depth and home dominance make them the sharper side to back in this matchup analysis.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Wednesday, September 17 at 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field, a pitcher-leaning venue with muted carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Diego Padres: -109
- New York Mets: -110
Total: 8
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+155)
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-193)
Latest Team Records
San Diego Padres: 82-68 (Win %: 0.547)
New York Mets: 77-73 (Win %: 0.513)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.277 AVG, 25 HR, 88 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.286 AVG, 23 HR, 75 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.264 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.266 AVG, 34 HR, 117 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.262 AVG, 40 HR, 98 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.263 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Team Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Padres carry an 82-68 record into this matchup, showing a competitive season overall, but their 35-41 road mark underlines where cracks appear. With a 3-2 record in their last five, scoring 5.4 runs per game, the offense is steady but not overwhelming, leaving little margin for error away from home. Manny Machado has been a reliable bat, yet the team’s inconsistency on the road raises questions about their ability to sustain scoring when travel is factored in.
Over their last 10 contests, the Padres are 6-4 while averaging 5.2 runs, reflecting a rhythm that is good but not dominant. Ramon Laureano has added stability in the order, though the Padres’ reliance on timely hits is less reliable in hostile environments. Fernando Tatis Jr. brings upside, but this group has historically struggled to translate its offensive output into consistent wins when playing outside San Diego.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 641
- Home Runs: 135
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.64
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 35-41 • Home Record: 47-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.2 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets’ 77-73 season record reflects a club that has endured stretches of inconsistency, but their 47-29 home mark is a clear separator. Although their last 5 games sit at 2-3 with 4.4 runs per game, the lineup remains dangerous, particularly with Pete Alonso anchoring the middle. The Mets’ ability to generate power at home offsets recent struggles and signals value in this spot.
Over the last 10 games, the Mets are 2-8 while averaging 3.3 runs, a slump that points to recent issues but also inflates the market’s perception against them. Juan Soto’s presence gives the order a proven bat that can shift outcomes quickly, while Francisco Lindor adds balance and situational production. The home field advantage, combined with a lineup stacked with proven run producers, makes the Mets the sharper side despite their downturn in recent road-heavy stretches.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 704
- Home Runs: 203
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.753
- ERA: 4.01
- WHIP: 1.34
Away Record: 31-44 • Home Record: 47-29
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 16, 2025: SD 3 @ NYM 8
- July 30, 2025: NYM 0 @ SD 5
- July 29, 2025: NYM 1 @ SD 7
- July 28, 2025: NYM 6 @ SD 7
Over/Under Trends
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ elite 47-29 home record, combined with their offensive core of Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor, makes them the superior side in this matchup. Even with recent struggles, their ability to generate runs at Citi Field and their 8-run outburst in the last meeting with San Diego confirm why the Mets are the right pick here.
Data supports the New York Mets as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the New York Mets have produced 4.4 RPG and the San Diego Padres 5.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
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