MLB Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers (Tuesday, September 16 at 10:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PHI | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +118 | -130 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-195) | -1.5 (163) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.2 | 7.6 |
| Record | 89–61 | 84–65 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia enters this matchup analysis riding an 8-2 surge over its last 10 games, producing 6.0 runs per outing during that span. That offensive rhythm has consistently pressured opponents and is a decisive edge against a Dodgers team that has been more uneven at 6-4 in its last 10. With both lineups driving high run totals, the betting edge leans toward Philadelphia Phillies’ momentum and the Over on the total.
Game Time
On tap at Tuesday, September 16 at 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium, a balanced venue where matchups drive scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- Philadelphia Phillies: +118
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -130
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-195)
- Run Line — Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+163)
Latest Team Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 89-61 (Win %: 0.593)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 84-65 (Win %: 0.564)
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies are missing Trea Turner (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Brock Stewart (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Will Smith (Hand), listed as 10-Day-IL; Roki Sasaki (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.244 AVG, 52 HR, 127 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.264 AVG, 26 HR, 72 RBI
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani: 0.281 AVG, 49 HR, 93 RBI
- Freddie Freeman: 0.296 AVG, 20 HR, 82 RBI
- Andy Pages: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 80 RBI
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 4-1 record across their last 5 games lays bare a team in rhythm, averaging 6.2 runs per contest. That scoring pace has been fueled by Kyle Schwarber’s relentless power and Bryce Harper’s ability to extend innings. On the road, the club has maintained a competitive split, showing they can translate offense into results even without home-field advantage.
Across the last 10 games, Philadelphia Phillies’ 8-2 record paired with a 6.0 RPG average confirms a lineup that is firing consistently. The ability to stack runs early and sustain pressure gives them a decisive betting edge, even against elite competition. With Trea Turner sidelined, Schwarber and Harper have stepped up to keep the offense dynamic, making this unit reliable for bettors.
- Batting Average: 0.261
- Total Runs Scored: 734
- Home Runs: 194
- OBP: 0.331
- SLG: 0.432
- OPS: 0.763
- ERA: 3.83
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 39-37 • Home Record: 51-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.0 RPG)
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ 3-2 record across their last 5 games comes with an impressive 7.6 RPG, highlighting offensive bursts led by Shohei Ohtani. While they’ve been productive at the plate, inconsistency in results keeps them from fully capitalizing on those numbers. Playing at home, they’ve been strong overall, but recent mixed results show vulnerability when opponents sustain scoring pressure.
Over the last 10 games, the Dodgers are 6-4 with a 5.7 RPG average, reflecting steady but less dominant form compared to Philadelphia Phillies’ surge. Freddie Freeman’s reliability and Andy Pages’ balanced production keep the lineup competitive, but the team has given up runs at a pace that offsets offensive output. That defensive leak is a key reason the Phillies hold the betting edge in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 767
- Home Runs: 220
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.439
- OPS: 0.769
- ERA: 4.04
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 36-39 • Home Record: 48-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (7.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Philadelphia Phillies lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 15, 2025: PHI 6 @ LAD 5
- April 06, 2025: LAD 7 @ PHI 8
- April 05, 2025: LAD 3 @ PHI 1
- April 04, 2025: LAD 2 @ PHI 3
Over/Under Trends
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Phillies’ 8-2 surge over their last 10 games, combined with their 3-1 edge in recent head-to-head matchups, makes them the superior side against a Dodgers team that has been less consistent. With Schwarber and Harper driving an offense averaging over six runs during this stretch, Philadelphia Phillies’ momentum and scoring efficiency position them as the sharper moneyline play.
The Philadelphia Phillies at +118 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Los Angeles Dodgers at 7.6 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 6.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 13.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, LowVig.ag, BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 16, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
