MLB Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays (Monday, September 15 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | TOR | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -127 | +108 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (132) | +1.5 (-154) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.0 | 3.6 |
| Record | 86–62 | 73–75 |
| Lines: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag | ||
More MLB picks: Toronto Blue Jays · Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has controlled this matchup all season, winning five of the last six meetings, and that dominance shapes this MLB prediction. The Rays’ recent offensive numbers sit at 3.6 runs per game over the last five, while Toronto has surged with 6.0, creating a combined profile that favors scoring. With Toronto showing strong current form but historically struggling against Tampa Bay, the sharper angle points toward the Rays’ ability to capitalize again at home in a game that projects above the total.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Monday, September 15 at 07:35 PM ET at Tropicana Field, unders find support.
Odds & Spread Line
- Toronto Blue Jays: -127
- Tampa Bay Rays: +108
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+132)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-154)
Latest Team Records
Toronto Blue Jays: 86-62 (Win %: 0.581)
Tampa Bay Rays: 73-75 (Win %: 0.493)
Injury Report
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Tampa Bay Rays are missing Alex Faedo (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Shane McClanahan (Triceps), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.305 AVG, 23 HR, 80 RBI
- George Springer: 0.299 AVG, 28 HR, 73 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.26 AVG, 43 HR, 107 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.291 AVG, 23 HR, 78 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.259 AVG, 28 HR, 75 RBI
Team Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays enter this contest with an 86-62 record, reflecting strong consistency over the course of the season. Their last 5 games show a 4-1 mark with 6.0 runs per game, signaling an offense that is peaking at the right time. On the road, however, they have been merely average, and that neutralizes some of their recent momentum when stepping into a tough divisional opponent’s park.
Bo Bichette has been a steady piece of the lineup, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has consistently contributed in run production. George Springer adds further depth, ensuring that run-scoring opportunities are spread across the order. Still, the Blue Jays’ 37-37 road record illustrates the challenge of translating their offensive surge into wins away from home.
- Batting Average: 0.269
- Total Runs Scored: 738
- Home Runs: 177
- OBP: 0.338
- SLG: 0.432
- OPS: 0.769
- ERA: 4.17
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 37-37 • Home Record: 50-25
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.8 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ overall 73-75 record shows inconsistency, but their 38-36 mark at home provides a stabilizing factor. Despite going just 1-4 in their last 5 games, their lineup has shown flashes of power, particularly with Junior Caminero delivering elite run production. That home-field edge combined with their proven ability to control this head-to-head matchup gives them a sharper betting angle than their recent slump might suggest.
Yandy Diaz’s ability to get on base consistently keeps the offense moving, while Brandon Lowe’s power adds balance. Even with only 3.1 runs per game across their last 10 contests, Tampa Bay matches up well against Toronto because of their dominance in previous meetings. The Blue Jays’ road mediocrity creates an opportunity for the Rays to reassert themselves in front of their home crowd.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 664
- Home Runs: 169
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.718
- ERA: 3.9
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 38-36
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tampa Bay Rays lead 5–1 (Last 6 games)
- May 25, 2025: TOR 0 @ TB 13
- May 24, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 3
- May 23, 2025: TOR 1 @ TB 3
- May 15, 2025: TB 8 @ TOR 3
- May 14, 2025: TB 1 @ TOR 3
- May 13, 2025: TB 11 @ TOR 9
Over/Under Trends
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Rays’ home record, combined with their commanding 5–1 lead in recent head-to-head meetings, makes them the sharper side despite Toronto’s current hot streak. With Junior Caminero driving in runs and Yandy Diaz setting the table, Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup has repeatedly exposed Toronto’s pitching, and that trend is set to continue in this spot.
We’re backing the Tampa Bay Rays at +108 as the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Tampa Bay Rays at 3.6 RPG and the Toronto Blue Jays at 6.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 15, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
