Introduction

More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s consistent 48-25 home record sends a clear betting signal in this MLB prediction against a Baltimore team that has struggled to create rhythm on the road. The Orioles’ last 5 games have averaged just 2.2 runs per outing, highlighting an offense that lacks stability. With the Blue Jays pushing a more reliable run profile and Baltimore Orioles’ road splits weighing them down, the value leans strongly toward Toronto and a lower-scoring contest.

Game Time

Coverage starts at Saturday, September 13 at 03:05 PM ET under the roof at Rogers Centre, pace quickens on turf.

Odds & Spread Line

• Baltimore Orioles: +145
• Toronto Blue Jays: -179

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-151)
• Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+125)

Latest Team Records

Baltimore Orioles: 69-78 (Win %: 0.469)
Toronto Blue Jays: 85-62 (Win %: 0.578)

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles are missing Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Felix Bautista (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

The Toronto Blue Jays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.27 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.252 AVG, 17 HR, 54 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI

Toronto Blue Jays

• Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
• George Springer: 0.297 AVG, 28 HR, 73 RBI
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.301 AVG, 23 HR, 79 RBI

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles enter with an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games, but their 2.2 runs per game across the last 5 underlines a sputtering offense. Even with Gunnar Henderson showing reliable production, the lack of consistent support has kept Baltimore from capitalizing on opportunities. Their 33-40 road record reinforces the difficulty of sustaining success when away from home.

Jackson Holliday adds power potential, yet his impact has not translated into steady scoring in these recent outings. Jordan Westburg’s contributions are being muted by the team’s broader offensive inconsistency, especially against disciplined pitching staffs. Baltimore Orioles’ run-prevention issues, combined with offensive slumps, make them a weaker betting side in this setting.

• Batting Average: 0.24
• Total Runs Scored: 628
• Home Runs: 173
• OBP: 0.307
• SLG: 0.4
• OPS: 0.708
• ERA: 4.58
• WHIP: 1.37

Away Record: 33-40 • Home Record: 36-38
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (3.4 RPG)

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have been steady with a 6-4 mark across their last 10, averaging 5.8 runs per game in that span. At home, their 48-25 record makes clear a reliable advantage, with Bo Bichette driving run production that has consistently tilted games in their favor. Against an Orioles lineup struggling to convert opportunities, Toronto’s balance positions them as the stronger side.

George Springer’s power surge and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s consistent bat have given Toronto reliable middle-order production. Their 3-2 mark in the last 5 with 4.2 runs per game shows they can win even in tighter scoring environments, which aligns with Baltimore Orioles’ recent low-output trend. This combination of home dominance and lineup efficiency makes Toronto the clear betting lean.

• Batting Average: 0.268
• Total Runs Scored: 727
• Home Runs: 176
• OBP: 0.337
• SLG: 0.432
• OPS: 0.769
• ERA: 4.19
• WHIP: 1.26

Away Record: 37-37 • Home Record: 48-25
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.8 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)

• September 12, 2025: BAL 1 @ TOR 6
• July 30, 2025: TOR 9 @ BAL 8
• July 29, 2025: TOR 2 @ BAL 3
• July 29, 2025: TOR 4 @ BAL 16
• July 28, 2025: TOR 4 @ BAL 11
• April 13, 2025: TOR 7 @ BAL 6
• April 12, 2025: TOR 4 @ BAL 5
• March 30, 2025: BAL 1 @ TOR 3

Over/Under Trends

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 6.4 total runs, with 1 game that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Toronto Blue Jays hold the edge with superior home splits and steadier run production, while Baltimore Orioles’ away form and recent offensive sputters weigh heavily against them. With Bichette, Springer, and Guerrero Jr. anchoring a confident lineup, Toronto is positioned to control the pace and secure the win.

We’re backing the Toronto Blue Jays — the read is consistent across metrics.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Toronto Blue Jays have produced 4.2 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles 2.2. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 6.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.

Bookmakers

Current MLB odds sourced from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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