MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (Friday, September 12 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BAL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +112 | -137 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-184) | -1.5 (156) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Record | 69–77 | 84–62 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s 47-25 home record contrasts sharply with Baltimore Orioles’ 33-39 road mark, creating a clear betting preview edge in this divisional matchup. The Orioles have averaged only 2.8 runs per game across their last five, while the Blue Jays remain the more consistent offensive unit despite a modest 2-3 stretch. With recent scoring trends favoring lower totals and Toronto’s lineup depth, the data points directly toward the Blue Jays controlling tempo while keeping this contest under the number.
Game Time
Slated for Friday, September 12 at 07:05 PM ET inside Rogers Centre, roof and surface add speed.
Odds & Spread Line
- Baltimore Orioles: +112
- Toronto Blue Jays: -137
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-184)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+156)
Latest Team Records
Baltimore Orioles: 69-77 (Win %: 0.473)
Toronto Blue Jays: 84-62 (Win %: 0.575)
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles are missing Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.27 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.252 AVG, 17 HR, 54 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
- George Springer: 0.297 AVG, 28 HR, 73 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.301 AVG, 23 HR, 79 RBI
Team Analysis
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles sit at 69-77 overall and have shown signs of life with a 4-1 record across their last five games, though the offense has still been limited to 2.8 runs per game in that stretch. Gunnar Henderson remains a key contributor, but the lineup’s inconsistency on the road has capped their scoring ceiling. With a 33-39 away record, this team continues to struggle translating recent wins into reliable betting confidence outside their home park.
Jackson Holliday has added some production, yet the broader offensive rhythm remains uneven, particularly in tighter games where run support drops off. Jordan Westburg’s numbers show promise, but the lack of sustained rallies has kept Baltimore below average in overall run generation. The Orioles’ recent 8-2 mark in their last ten games shows improvement, but their offensive pace aligns with lower totals rather than explosive outcomes.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 628
- Home Runs: 173
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.4
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 4.58
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 33-39 • Home Record: 36-38
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (3.5 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have compiled an 84-62 record and remain dominant at home with a 47-25 mark, a clear sign of stability in this betting context. Despite going 2-3 in their last five games, the lineup has still averaged 3.2 runs per game, keeping them competitive in lower-scoring environments. Bo Bichette’s production has been pivotal in maintaining offensive balance, ensuring Toronto avoids prolonged droughts.
Across their last ten games, Toronto has gone 6-4 with an impressive 6.0 runs per game, showing they can elevate scoring when needed. George Springer’s power and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s consistency give the lineup multiple threats, particularly effective in their home setting. With steadier run production and a stronger situational profile, the Blue Jays are positioned as the more trustworthy side to back.
- Batting Average: 0.268
- Total Runs Scored: 727
- Home Runs: 176
- OBP: 0.337
- SLG: 0.432
- OPS: 0.769
- ERA: 4.19
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 37-37 • Home Record: 47-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Baltimore Orioles lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- July 30, 2025: TOR 9 @ BAL 8
- July 29, 2025: TOR 2 @ BAL 3
- July 29, 2025: TOR 4 @ BAL 16
- July 28, 2025: TOR 4 @ BAL 11
- April 13, 2025: TOR 7 @ BAL 6
- April 12, 2025: TOR 4 @ BAL 5
- March 30, 2025: BAL 1 @ TOR 3
- March 29, 2025: BAL 9 @ TOR 5
Over/Under Trends
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.2 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Toronto’s combination of a 47-25 home record, consistent production from Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and a recent 6-4 run across their last ten games makes them the sharper side. Their ability to sustain offense in lower-scoring contests gives them the edge over Baltimore Orioles’ weaker road form and limited run support.
Data supports the Toronto Blue Jays as the right side.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Toronto Blue Jays at 3.2 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles at 2.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 6.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Under 7.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
