MLB Prediction: Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres (Thursday, September 11 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | COL | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +190 | -233 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-115) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.4 | 5.0 |
| Record | 40–105 | 79–66 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Colorado Rockies · San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres’ recent 3-2 stretch shows steadier scoring compared to Colorado Rockies’ 0-5 skid, where the Rockies managed just 2.4 runs per game. That disparity creates a sharp edge in this MLB prediction, as the Padres’ balanced lineup is positioned to control the tempo. With Colorado Rockies’ offense in a slump and San Diego Padres’ home form consistently strong, this matchup points clearly toward the Padres and a lower-scoring outcome.
Game Time
This one goes at Thursday, September 11 at 09:40 PM ET inside Petco Park, conservative scoring is typical.
Odds & Spread Line
- Colorado Rockies: +190
- San Diego Padres: -233
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-105)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-115)
Latest Team Records
Colorado Rockies: 40-105 (Win %: 0.276)
San Diego Padres: 79-66 (Win %: 0.545)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Colorado Rockies
- Hunter Goodman: 0.282 AVG, 30 HR, 87 RBI
- Mickey Moniak: 0.26 AVG, 19 HR, 57 RBI
- Jordan Beck: 0.27 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.276 AVG, 23 HR, 84 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.295 AVG, 23 HR, 71 RBI
- Gavin Sheets: 0.267 AVG, 19 HR, 64 RBI
Team Analysis
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies enter this matchup with a 0-5 mark in their last five games, averaging only 2.4 runs per contest, which firmly signals an offense stuck in a slump. Hunter Goodman remains their most reliable power source, but his production has not been enough to offset the lack of consistent run support. With a 17-54 road record, Colorado Rockies’ inability to generate offense away from home compounds their struggles.
Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck have delivered occasional sparks, yet the team’s rhythm continues to collapse late in games. Their 2-8 record across the last ten outings makes clear a lack of confidence and momentum. Given the persistent scoring drought and poor road splits, Colorado does not project as a viable betting side here.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 545
- Home Runs: 144
- OBP: 0.297
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.688
- ERA: 6.01
- WHIP: 1.6
Away Record: 17-54 • Home Record: 23-52
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.5 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres have steadied themselves with a 3-2 record across the last five games, producing 5.0 runs per contest in that span. Manny Machado has been central to this consistency, driving in runs at key moments to keep the offense balanced. Their 44-27 home record highlights how effectively they control games at Petco Park.
Ramon Laureano’s contact ability and Gavin Sheets’ power support a lineup that can pressure opposing pitchers even if scoring isn’t explosive. Despite a 3-7 mark in the last ten games, the recent uptick paired with strong home performances suggests a clear edge against a Rockies team in freefall. San Diego Padres’ combination of run prevention and timely hitting positions them as the superior side.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 616
- Home Runs: 127
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.386
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 3.66
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 44-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- September 07, 2025: SD 8 @ COL 1
- September 06, 2025: SD 10 @ COL 8
- September 05, 2025: SD 0 @ COL 3
- May 11, 2025: SD 3 @ COL 9
- May 10, 2025: SD 21 @ COL 0
- May 09, 2025: SD 13 @ COL 9
- April 13, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 6
- April 12, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 2
Over/Under Trends
Colorado Rockies’ last 10 games have averaged 10.2 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
San Diego Padres’ superior 44-27 home record, combined with Colorado Rockies’ 17-54 road struggles, makes the Padres the clear moneyline side. With Machado, Laureano, and Sheets collectively producing enough offense and a 6-2 head-to-head edge in recent meetings, the Padres hold every statistical advantage to secure another win.
We’re backing the San Diego Padres — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the San Diego Padres are at 5.0 RPG and the Colorado Rockies at 2.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 7.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 11, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
