MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (Thursday, September 11 at 02:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | TB | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -154 | +125 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (115) | +1.5 (-137) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Record | 72–72 | 55–90 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox
The White Sox enter this matchup analysis with a clear edge in rhythm, having gone 8-2 across their last 10 while averaging 5.9 runs per game. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has stumbled in its last 5 with a 1-4 mark and just 2.8 runs per game, signaling an offense stuck in neutral. With Chicago showing sharper consistency at the plate and Tampa Bay struggling to sustain scoring on the road, this MLB prediction leans heavily toward the home side dictating tempo in a lower-scoring contest.
Game Time
Set for Thursday, September 11 at 02:10 PM ET inside Guaranteed Rate Field, run creation trends higher.
Odds & Spread Line
- Tampa Bay Rays: -154
- Chicago White Sox: +125
Total: 8
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+115)
- Run Line — Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-137)
Latest Team Records
Tampa Bay Rays: 72-72 (Win %: 0.5)
Chicago White Sox: 55-90 (Win %: 0.379)
Injury Report
The Tampa Bay Rays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Chicago White Sox are missing Max Stassi (Undisclosed), listed as Day-To-Day.
Key Player Stats
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.261 AVG, 41 HR, 103 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.29 AVG, 22 HR, 77 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.262 AVG, 28 HR, 74 RBI
Chicago White Sox
- Lenyn Sosa: 0.265 AVG, 20 HR, 65 RBI
- Andrew Benintendi: 0.247 AVG, 18 HR, 59 RBI
- Miguel Vargas: 0.234 AVG, 14 HR, 52 RBI
Team Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays’ recent 1-4 record across the last 5 games with just 2.8 runs per game highlights an offense stuck in a slump. Junior Caminero’s power has carried stretches of their production, but the lack of consistent run support has undermined his impact. On the road, a 34-37 mark emphasizes the difficulty this group has had stringing together complete performances away from home.
Yandy Diaz has provided steady contact hitting, while Brandon Lowe offers secondary power, yet the lineup collectively has not translated those individual contributions into sustained scoring. The Rays’ neutral 6-4 mark over the last 10 masks the fact that their recent form has trended downward, with the last week exposing a lack of rhythm. Against a White Sox team in sharper offensive form, Tampa Bay Rays’ inefficiency makes them a questionable side for bettors.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 649
- Home Runs: 163
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.717
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 34-37 • Home Record: 38-36
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.0 RPG)
Chicago White Sox
Chicago has surged with an 8-2 record in its last 10 games, averaging 5.9 runs per contest, signaling a lineup finding rhythm at the right time. Lenyn Sosa has been a central driver of their offensive lift, giving this group a reliable run producer. Their 31-43 home record paints a broader struggle, but the recent 3-2 stretch with 4.6 RPG indicates stabilization at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Andrew Benintendi has complemented Sosa with timely extra-base hits, while Miguel Vargas adds depth to the order that balances their attack. The White Sox’s ability to outscore opponents in tighter contests, including a one-run win earlier in the series, shows a team capable of executing under pressure. With their recent offensive consistency and proven edge over Tampa Bay in head-to-head meetings, Chicago carries the more confident betting profile.
- Batting Average: 0.235
- Total Runs Scored: 586
- Home Runs: 149
- OBP: 0.304
- SLG: 0.378
- OPS: 0.683
- ERA: 4.24
- WHIP: 1.36
Away Record: 25-47 • Home Record: 31-43
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (5.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Chicago White Sox lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- September 10, 2025: TB 5 @ CHW 6
- September 09, 2025: TB 5 @ CHW 4
- July 23, 2025: CHW 11 @ TB 9
- July 22, 2025: CHW 3 @ TB 4
- July 21, 2025: CHW 8 @ TB 3
Over/Under Trends
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Chicago White Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 10.5 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Chicago’s recent surge of 8-2 over the last 10, combined with 5.9 RPG in that span, puts them in a stronger rhythm than Tampa Bay, whose offense has cratered at 2.8 RPG in the last 5. With a 3-2 head-to-head edge in the series and timely contributions from Lenyn Sosa and Andrew Benintendi, the White Sox profile as the sharper side to back at home.
The Chicago White Sox at +125 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Chicago White Sox at 4.6 RPG and the Tampa Bay Rays at 2.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 7.4 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, FanDuel, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 11, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
