Introduction

More MLB picks: Houston Astros · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s 46-25 home record sets a clear tone for this MLB prediction, with their offense showing consistency while the Astros have been uneven on the road. Houston Astros’ last 5 games produced 4.4 runs per outing, but Toronto’s 3.4 RPG in the same span suggests a slower pace that aligns with a low-scoring contest. The Blue Jays’ lineup depth and situational edge at home make them the stronger side despite Houston Astros’ recent head-to-head success.

Game Time

Set for Thursday, September 11 at 03:05 PM ET inside Rogers Centre, roof and surface add speed.

Odds & Spread Line

• Houston Astros: +128
• Toronto Blue Jays: -156

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Houston Astros: +1.5 (-160)
• Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+135)

Latest Team Records

Houston Astros: 78-67 (Win %: 0.538)
Toronto Blue Jays: 83-61 (Win %: 0.576)

Injury Report

Houston Astros are missing Zach Dezenzo (Hand), listed as 60-Day-IL; Isaac Paredes (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL; Brendan Rodgers (Back), listed as 60-Day-IL; Pedro Leon (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Josh Hader (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

The Toronto Blue Jays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Houston Astros

• Jose Altuve: 0.263 AVG, 24 HR, 69 RBI
• Jeremy Pena: 0.303 AVG, 15 HR, 54 RBI
• Christian Walker: 0.234 AVG, 22 HR, 76 RBI

Toronto Blue Jays

• Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
• George Springer: 0.3 AVG, 28 HR, 73 RBI
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.304 AVG, 23 HR, 79 RBI

Team Analysis

Houston Astros

The Astros enter at 78-67 with a 2-3 mark over their last 5 games, averaging 4.4 runs in that span. Their road record of 36-35 reflects a lack of dominance away from home, which has been evident in inconsistent scoring stretches. Jose Altuve’s power numbers provide a spark, but the lineup has not sustained rallies often enough against quality pitching.

Over their last 10 games, Houston has gone 4-6 while averaging 4.3 runs, a neutral profile that lacks momentum. Jeremy Pena’s contact ability adds some balance, but Christian Walker’s production has not offset the team’s recent slide. With their offense prone to uneven stretches on the road, Houston Astros’ outlook is secondary to Toronto’s home confidence in this matchup.

• Batting Average: 0.253
• Total Runs Scored: 612
• Home Runs: 160
• OBP: 0.318
• SLG: 0.401
• OPS: 0.72
• ERA: 3.85
• WHIP: 1.22

Away Record: 36-35 • Home Record: 43-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.3 RPG)

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s 83-61 record reflects a stronger season pace, and their 46-25 home mark reinforces that advantage. Their last 5 games show a 2-3 record with 3.4 runs per game, which points to a modest scoring run but still within control thanks to a balanced lineup. Bo Bichette’s consistency in run production stabilizes the offense even when overall scoring dips.

Over the last 10 games, the Blue Jays have gone 5-5 while averaging 5.5 runs, a stronger offensive trend than the Astros in the same span. George Springer’s power and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s ability to drive in runs give Toronto multiple avenues to pressure opposing pitchers. With their home splits and lineup depth, the Blue Jays project as the more reliable side in this contest.

• Batting Average: 0.269
• Total Runs Scored: 719
• Home Runs: 175
• OBP: 0.338
• SLG: 0.432
• OPS: 0.77
• ERA: 4.23
• WHIP: 1.27

Away Record: 37-37 • Home Record: 46-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.5 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Houston Astros lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)

• September 10, 2025: HOU 3 @ TOR 2
• September 09, 2025: HOU 3 @ TOR 4
• April 23, 2025: TOR 1 @ HOU 3
• April 22, 2025: TOR 1 @ HOU 5
• April 21, 2025: TOR 0 @ HOU 7

Over/Under Trends

Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Blue Jays’ superior 46-25 home record, combined with their stronger offensive profile over the last 10 games, makes them the sharper moneyline side. With Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anchoring a versatile lineup, Toronto’s situational edge at home outweighs Houston Astros’ recent head-to-head advantage.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the sharp side on form and splits.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Toronto Blue Jays are at 3.4 RPG and the Houston Astros at 4.4 — a useful baseline against the total.

These teams are combining for 7.8 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.

Bookmakers

Available at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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