MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles (Thursday, September 11 at 01:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -152 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (140) |
| Last 5 RPG | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| Record | 64–81 | 67–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore enters this interleague matchup with momentum, taking four of its last five while holding opponents to just 2.6 runs per game, compared to Pittsburgh Pirates’ 0-5 skid at 1.6 RPG. That contrast in recent output provides a sharp edge for this MLB prediction, with the Orioles trending upward while the Pirates are firmly in a slump. With both teams combining for fewer than five runs per contest lately, the data points directly to Baltimore on the moneyline and a lower-scoring outcome under the posted total.
Game Time
Taking place at Thursday, September 11 at 01:05 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +125
- Baltimore Orioles: -152
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-165)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+140)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 64-81 (Win %: 0.441)
Baltimore Orioles: 67-77 (Win %: 0.465)
Injury Report
The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Colin Selby (Hamstring), listed as 15-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.246 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.261 AVG, 9 HR, 50 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.243 AVG, 13 HR, 53 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.272 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.25 AVG, 17 HR, 53 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 0-5 mark in its last five games with just 1.6 RPG points to a lineup stuck in a slump. The away record of 22-49 highlights persistent struggles outside their own park, and that weakness is compounded by a lack of consistency in run support. Bryan Reynolds has carried some weight offensively, but the lack of collective production makes it difficult for the Pirates to stay competitive against sharper opposition.
Across the last 10 games, Pittsburgh Pirates’ 4-6 record with 3.7 RPG reflects fleeting sparks but no sustainable rhythm. Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen bring veteran presence, yet the team’s inability to string together timely hits away from home has left them vulnerable. Against an Orioles squad riding confidence at Camden Yards, Pittsburgh Pirates’ inefficiency at the plate is unlikely to turn around in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 524
- Home Runs: 103
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.35
- OPS: 0.656
- ERA: 3.89
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 22-49 • Home Record: 42-33
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (1.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.7 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore has surged with an 8-2 record in its last 10 games, including a 4-1 run across its last five. While only averaging 2.6 RPG during that stretch, the pitching and defense have carried the results, maximizing narrow margins. Gunnar Henderson has been a steady contributor, and the Orioles’ overall balance keeps them ahead in tight contests.
The Orioles’ 35-38 home record shows steady competitiveness at Camden Yards, and their ability to close out one-run games against Pittsburgh reinforces their edge. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg have supplied timely hits that complement the team’s defensive stability. With recent head-to-head wins already in hand, Baltimore Orioles’ form and situational consistency make them the more reliable side here.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 623
- Home Runs: 173
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.402
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 4.63
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 33-39 • Home Record: 35-38
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (4.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Baltimore Orioles lead 2–0 (Last 2 games)
- September 10, 2025: PIT 1 @ BAL 2
- September 09, 2025: PIT 2 @ BAL 3
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 7.9 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.9 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Baltimore Orioles’ 8-2 surge over its last 10, combined with back-to-back head-to-head wins against Pittsburgh, points to a team executing in close games while its opponent struggles to generate runs. With Henderson, Holliday, and Westburg providing reliable offense and the Pirates floundering on the road, the Orioles are the clear moneyline side to back with confidence.
The Baltimore Orioles are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 2.6 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 1.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 4.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 11, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How does Parlamaz make Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
