MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies (Thursday, September 11 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 | -147 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (144) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.2 | 5.8 |
| Record | 76–69 | 85–60 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia enters this matchup analysis on a 4-1 run across its last five games, averaging 5.8 runs per outing, while New York has collapsed with five straight losses at just 2.2 runs per game. That contrast in form highlights a clear edge for Philadelphia, whose lineup has been consistently productive while New York Mets’ offense is locked in a slump. With both teams familiar after splitting their past eight head-to-head meetings, the Phillies’ home dominance and sharper recent scoring profile make them the superior side for this MLB prediction.
Game Time
Taking place at Thursday, September 11 at 07:15 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, a power-friendly setting.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: +120
- Philadelphia Phillies: -147
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-170)
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+144)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 76-69 (Win %: 0.524)
Philadelphia Phillies: 85-60 (Win %: 0.586)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.269 AVG, 33 HR, 113 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.261 AVG, 38 HR, 94 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.264 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.24 AVG, 50 HR, 123 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 24 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets enter in poor rhythm, dropping their last five contests while managing only 2.2 runs per game in that stretch. That level of production reflects an offense that has stalled, especially on the road where their record shows long-term struggles. Even with the power potential of Pete Alonso, the lack of consistent run support has left the team unable to compete effectively against stronger lineups.
Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor have been capable of driving in runs, but the wider lineup has not provided enough balance to sustain rallies. Their away form has been a liability all season, with more losses than wins in road environments, and current trends show no signs of a turnaround. Against a Philadelphia team with momentum, the Mets’ lack of scoring depth puts them at a clear disadvantage.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 687
- Home Runs: 198
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 3.95
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 31-43 • Home Record: 45-27
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.1 RPG)
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have surged with four wins in their last five games, producing 5.8 runs per outing and demonstrating offensive balance at home. Kyle Schwarber’s power has set the tone, while Trea Turner’s ability to get on base keeps pressure on opposing pitchers. This combination has fueled a strong home record that ranks among the league’s best.
Bryce Harper has added another layer of stability by converting scoring chances, complementing Schwarber’s long-ball threat. Their 7-3 mark over the last 10 games reinforces the consistency of their attack, and the pitching staff has held opponents in check to preserve leads. With Citizens Bank Park amplifying their offensive strengths, Philadelphia enters this matchup with superior form and confidence.
- Batting Average: 0.259
- Total Runs Scored: 692
- Home Runs: 181
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.755
- ERA: 3.79
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 38-37 • Home Record: 48-23
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 10, 2025: NYM 3 @ PHI 11
- September 09, 2025: NYM 3 @ PHI 9
- September 08, 2025: NYM 0 @ PHI 1
- August 27, 2025: PHI 0 @ NYM 6
- August 26, 2025: PHI 5 @ NYM 6
- August 25, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 13
- June 22, 2025: NYM 1 @ PHI 7
- June 21, 2025: NYM 11 @ PHI 4
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 8.7 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ 48-23 home record combined with a 4-1 surge in their last five games highlights a team in control, while New York has collapsed with five straight losses and a weak road profile. With Schwarber, Turner, and Harper fueling an attack that consistently outpaces the Mets’ sputtering offense, the Phillies are the clear side to trust.
We’re backing the Philadelphia Phillies to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Philadelphia Phillies at 5.8 RPG and the New York Mets at 2.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
