MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles (Wednesday, September 10 at 06:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PIT | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -149 | +123 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (118) | +1.5 (-140) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| Record | 64–81 | 67–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Pittsburgh Pirates · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles’ 4-1 mark over the last five games highlights a team trending upward, while Pittsburgh enters this interleague matchup analysis off a 1-4 stretch that has exposed their lack of scoring punch. The Pirates have averaged just 2.4 runs per game in that span, a slump that places added pressure on their lineup. With the Orioles showing steadier offensive rhythm and the Pirates struggling to find consistency, this MLB prediction leans heavily toward Baltimore taking control in a low-scoring contest.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Wednesday, September 10 at 06:35 PM ET inside Camden Yards, aggressive lineups find extra bases.
Odds & Spread Line
- Pittsburgh Pirates: -149
- Baltimore Orioles: +123
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+118)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-140)
Latest Team Records
Pittsburgh Pirates: 64-81 (Win %: 0.441)
Baltimore Orioles: 67-77 (Win %: 0.465)
Injury Report
The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.246 AVG, 15 HR, 70 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 0.261 AVG, 9 HR, 50 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.243 AVG, 13 HR, 53 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.272 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.25 AVG, 17 HR, 53 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 1-4 record in their last five games points to a slide that has been fueled by a lack of consistent run production, with just 2.4 runs per game over that stretch. Even with Bryan Reynolds providing occasional power, the lineup has not been able to sustain pressure on opponents. Their 22-48 road record further signals that this group struggles away from home, making it difficult to trust them in this spot.
Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen have chipped in at times, but the Pirates’ offensive rhythm remains erratic, and they have failed to string together rallies in key moments. The team’s 5-5 mark in the last 10 games shows flashes of competitiveness, but the lack of scoring consistency keeps them from building momentum. Against a more confident Baltimore side, Pittsburgh Pirates’ road vulnerabilities are magnified.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 524
- Home Runs: 103
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.35
- OPS: 0.656
- ERA: 3.89
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 22-48 • Home Record: 42-33
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.0 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore enters with a 4-1 record in their last five games, averaging 3.6 runs per contest and showing an ability to win tight, low-scoring affairs. Gunnar Henderson continues to anchor the lineup with steady production, while Jackson Holliday adds another reliable bat that helps sustain rallies. Their 34-38 home record, while not dominant, has been trending upward with improved offensive balance at Camden Yards.
Jordan Westburg has provided timely power to complement the rest of the order, giving Baltimore a more complete scoring profile than Pittsburgh. The Orioles’ 7-3 run over the last 10 games reflects confidence and execution in critical moments, something the Pirates lack right now. With sharper recent form and a more dependable lineup, Baltimore carries the clear edge at home.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 623
- Home Runs: 173
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.402
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 4.63
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 33-39 • Home Record: 34-38
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Baltimore Orioles lead 1–0 (Most recent game)
- September 09, 2025: PIT 2 @ BAL 3
Over/Under Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 8.2 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Baltimore Orioles’ sharper 7-3 run over their last 10 games, combined with a recent head-to-head win and steadier offensive contributions from Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, makes them the superior side. With Pittsburgh slumping on the road and struggling to score, Baltimore Orioles’ home form and momentum provide the decisive edge here.
The Baltimore Orioles at +123 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 3.6 RPG and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 2.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 6.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Under 7.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
