MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies (Wednesday, September 10 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -179 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (130) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.6 | 5.4 |
| Record | 76–69 | 85–60 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have surged with a 4-1 stretch in their last five, averaging 5.4 runs per game, while the Mets have stumbled to a 1-4 mark at just 2.6 RPG. This contrast in form sets the tone for an assertive MLB prediction where Philadelphia Phillies’ offensive consistency and home dominance give them a decisive edge. With run production trending above the posted total, the Over also aligns with recent scoring patterns and matchup dynamics.
Game Time
Scheduled for Wednesday, September 10 at 06:45 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, a power-friendly setting.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: +145
- Philadelphia Phillies: -179
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — New York Mets: +1.5 (-150)
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+130)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 76-69 (Win %: 0.524)
Philadelphia Phillies: 85-60 (Win %: 0.586)
Injury Report
The New York Mets are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Philadelphia Phillies are missing Brandon Marsh (Illness), listed as Day-To-Day; Alec Bohm (Shoulder), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.269 AVG, 33 HR, 113 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.261 AVG, 38 HR, 94 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.264 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.24 AVG, 50 HR, 123 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 24 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ recent 1-4 stretch with just 2.6 runs per game highlights a lineup struggling to sustain pressure. Despite having power bats like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto, the offense is failing to translate opportunities into consistent scoring. Their 31-42 road record highlights the lack of reliability away from home, a critical weakness against a top-tier opponent in Philadelphia.
Francisco Lindor has been a steady contributor, but collective rhythm has been absent, as shown by a 3-7 mark over the last 10 games. Even when run totals have spiked, the inconsistency prevents bettors from trusting this lineup in difficult environments. With confidence low and production uneven, the Mets’ current form does not inspire faith on the moneyline.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 687
- Home Runs: 198
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 3.95
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 31-42 • Home Record: 45-27
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.6 RPG)
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 4-1 run over their last five games with 5.4 RPG demonstrates both offensive rhythm and winning consistency. Kyle Schwarber’s power production has been a constant, while Trea Turner’s high-contact game has kept the lineup balanced. Their 47-23 home record underlines why they are one of the most trusted teams in this betting spot.
With Bryce Harper adding another layer of reliability, Philadelphia has maintained steady run production even against quality pitching. Their 7-3 stretch over the last 10 games shows that momentum has been sustained, not just a short-term burst. Playing at Citizens Bank Park amplifies their scoring upside, making them an assertive moneyline selection.
- Batting Average: 0.259
- Total Runs Scored: 692
- Home Runs: 181
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.755
- ERA: 3.79
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 38-37 • Home Record: 47-23
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 09, 2025: NYM 3 @ PHI 9
- September 08, 2025: NYM 0 @ PHI 1
- August 27, 2025: PHI 0 @ NYM 6
- August 26, 2025: PHI 5 @ NYM 6
- August 25, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 13
- June 22, 2025: NYM 1 @ PHI 7
- June 21, 2025: NYM 11 @ PHI 4
- June 20, 2025: NYM 2 @ PHI 10
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 7.8 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ 47-23 home record, combined with a 4-1 recent surge at 5.4 RPG, makes them the clear side in this matchup. With Kyle Schwarber driving power, Trea Turner providing balance, and Bryce Harper adding timely production, their offensive core is aligned with winning form and situational dominance at Citizens Bank Park.
We’re backing the Philadelphia Phillies — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Philadelphia Phillies at 5.4 RPG and the New York Mets at 2.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 10, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
