More EPL picks: Sunderland · Crystal Palace

Introduction

Sunderland’s attack has struck at a 2.0 goals-per-game clip through 2 matches, while Crystal Palace have leaned on defensive solidity with two clean sheets already. That early-season trend sets up a fascinating contrast of styles, but Palace’s home edge and efficiency in front of goal give them the decisive angle. With Sunderland conceding on the road and Palace proving difficult to break down, the matchup projects toward a decisive Palace performance in a game that is positioned to not stay low-scoring.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 13 at 02:00 PM ET at Selhurst Park.

Odds

• Sunderland: +430
• Crystal Palace: -165

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Sunderland: +0.5 (+104)
Handicap — Crystal Palace: -0.5 (-115)

Latest Team Records

Sunderland: 2-0-1 (Win %: 0.667 )
Crystal Palace: 1-2-0 (Win %: 0.333 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Sunderland

Sunderland have opened the campaign with 5 goals from 22 shots, a sharp 22.7% conversion rate that reflects clinical finishing. Their passing volume is high at over 1,300, but the ratio of passes per shot signals long build-up phases before creating chances. That patience has worked at home, where they’ve won both matches, but it leaves questions about whether they can replicate that efficiency away from the Stadium of Light.

Recent form shows Sunderland averaging 2.0 goals across their last five and ten, evidence of a consistent scoring rhythm. However, their lone road outing ended in defeat, underlining a vulnerability when stepping out of their comfort zone. With discipline issues beginning to creep in through four yellow cards, this group faces a sterner test against Palace’s compact structure.

• Goals: 5
• Total Shots: 22
• Shots on Target: 9
• Total Passes: 1358
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 4
• Offsides: 2
• Shot Conversion: 22.7%
• Passes per Shot: 61.73
• Discipline: Y:4 • R:0 • Off:2

Away Record: 0-0-1 • Home Record: 2-0-0 • Last 5: 2-0-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-0-1 (2.0 GPG)

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have produced 4 goals from 20 shots, converting at a 20% clip while also hitting the target with more regularity than Sunderland. Their defensive steel has shone through with two clean sheets already, an important sign given their reliance on structure at Selhurst Park. Despite a modest home record so far, the underlying balance of attack and defense positions them well to control this matchup.

Across their last five, Palace average 1.0 goals per game, but that steadiness is complemented by their ability to restrict opponents. The home context is key — even in a narrow defeat, the side’s defensive numbers held up, and their passes per shot figure shows a more direct attacking approach. With Sunderland’s away struggles, Palace’s sharper edge at both ends of the pitch makes them the clear favorite here.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 20
• Shots on Target: 12
• Total Passes: 989
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 9
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 4
• Shot Conversion: 20.0%
• Passes per Shot: 49.45
• Discipline: Y:9 • R:0 • Off:4

Home Record: 0-1-0 • Away Record: 1-1-0 • Last 5: 1-2-0 (1.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-2-0 (1.0 GPG)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Crystal Palace’s recent matches have averaged 1.0 total goals and Sunderland’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 3.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Crystal Palace’s superior defensive record and ability to generate clearer chances at home. Sunderland’s finishing has been sharp, but their away form lags behind, and Palace’s structure is built to blunt that. Expect Palace to assert themselves and take full points.

Match dynamics favor Crystal Palace from kick-off to final whistle.

Over/Under Prediction

Crystal Palace have produced 1.0 GPG and Sunderland 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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