MLB Prediction: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays (Sunday, September 7 at 12:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CLE | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +138 | -167 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (132) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Record | 71–70 | 71–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Tampa Bay Rays
The Guardians have averaged 5.4 runs per game across their last 5 contests, but Tampa Bay has steadied with 4.4 per game in that same span, setting up a sharp MLB prediction on both side and total. Cleveland Guardians’ road record sits just under .500, while Tampa Bay has leaned on home consistency to stabilize its season. With both lineups showing recent offensive lift, this matchup analysis points toward Tampa Bay Rays’ deeper run production and a total leaning higher than posted.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Sunday, September 7 at 12:10 PM ET inside the dome at Tropicana Field, carry is limited.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cleveland Guardians: +138
- Tampa Bay Rays: -167
Total: 8
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-156)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+132)
Latest Team Records
Cleveland Guardians: 71-70 (Win %: 0.504)
Tampa Bay Rays: 71-71 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.283 AVG, 27 HR, 73 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.233 AVG, 25 HR, 63 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.275 AVG, 10 HR, 47 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.261 AVG, 41 HR, 103 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.293 AVG, 22 HR, 77 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.262 AVG, 28 HR, 74 RBI
Team Analysis
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians sit at 71-70 overall, but their away record of 36-37 shows how inconsistent they have been outside of Cleveland. Their last 5 games at 3-2 (5.4 RPG) highlight a short-term offensive lift, though the broader 6-4 in the last 10 (4.6 RPG) suggests only modest stability. Jose Ramirez provides the most reliable production in the lineup, but the team still leans heavily on streaky scoring patterns when traveling.
Steven Kwan has added balance, yet the Guardians’ offense remains vulnerable to extended dry spells, especially when relying on secondary contributors. Kyle Manzardo has shown power, but the team’s away scoring profile makes them less trustworthy in hostile environments. Given Tampa Bay Rays’ home edge, Cleveland Guardians’ inconsistencies remain a liability from a betting outlook.
- Batting Average: 0.224
- Total Runs Scored: 550
- Home Runs: 146
- OBP: 0.295
- SLG: 0.368
- OPS: 0.663
- ERA: 3.93
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 36-37 • Home Record: 35-33
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.6 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay holds a 71-71 record and a home mark of 38-35, showing steady reliability at Tropicana Field. Their last 5 games at 3-2 (4.4 RPG) reflect balanced scoring, while a stronger 7-3 in the last 10 (5.0 RPG) reveals upward momentum. Junior Caminero’s 41 homers anchor the lineup, giving the Rays a consistent power threat that Cleveland lacks on the road.
Yandy Diaz has been a key contact bat, keeping innings alive and setting up run-scoring chances, while Brandon Lowe adds the secondary punch that stretches this offense deeper. The Rays’ home consistency pairs well with their recent offensive rhythm, making them the more dependable side in this matchup. With Cleveland Guardians’ away volatility, Tampa Bay Rays’ balanced attack looks primed to control the run output here.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 643
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.717
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 33-36 • Home Record: 38-35
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Cleveland Guardians lead 4–2 (Last 6 games)
- September 06, 2025: CLE 3 @ TB 2
- September 05, 2025: CLE 7 @ TB 1
- September 04, 2025: CLE 2 @ TB 4
- August 27, 2025: TB 3 @ CLE 4
- August 26, 2025: TB 0 @ CLE 3
- August 25, 2025: TB 9 @ CLE 0
Over/Under Trends
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays’ 7-3 stretch in their last 10 games, combined with a winning home record and deeper offensive balance, makes them the clear moneyline side. With Junior Caminero’s power and Yandy Diaz’s steady contact fueling a lineup that has produced 5.0 RPG over that span, the Rays hold the sharper profile against Cleveland Guardians’ road inconsistency.
Confidence sits with the Tampa Bay Rays based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Tampa Bay Rays are at 4.4 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians at 5.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 07, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
