MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Friday, September 5 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -125 | +105 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (130) | +1.5 (-155) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| Record | 78–63 | 70–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona enters this interleague matchup analysis against Boston with confidence, having averaged 4.4 runs per game over their last five, while the Red Sox put up 5.2 in that same span. That recent scoring consistency points directly to value on both the moneyline and the total, making this an assertive MLB prediction with a clear lean. With Boston carrying a strong overall record but showing road inconsistency, and Arizona steady at home, the betting edge aligns with the National League side and a game that trends toward higher scoring.
Game Time
Set for Friday, September 5 at 09:40 PM ET under the roof at Chase Field, a balanced scoring environment.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -125
- Arizona Diamondbacks: +105
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+130)
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-155)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 78-63 (Win %: 0.553)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 70-71 (Win %: 0.496)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Cristian Mena (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.259 AVG, 23 HR, 88 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.26 AVG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.282 AVG, 16 HR, 88 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.29 AVG, 25 HR, 64 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.257 AVG, 29 HR, 71 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
Boston’s 78-63 record reflects a team in control of its season, but their 34-35 road mark signals vulnerability away from home. Over the last 5 games they’ve gone 3-2 while averaging 5.2 runs per game, showing capable offense but without a dominant surge. Jarren Duran’s ability to generate production situationally adds spark, though the team’s reliance on streaky bursts rather than sustained pressure creates questions in a hostile environment.
The Red Sox’s 7-3 mark over the last 10 games highlights resilience, but their road inconsistency remains a concern against a home-balanced opponent. Trevor Story and Wilyer Abreu provide depth to the lineup, yet Boston’s offensive rhythm has not always translated in NL parks. That situational gap leaves them exposed against a Diamondbacks team that thrives in familiar conditions.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 696
- Home Runs: 169
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.426
- OPS: 0.751
- ERA: 3.73
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 34-35 • Home Record: 44-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.3 RPG)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks’ 70-71 record places them near .500, but their 36-33 home record demonstrates steadiness in Phoenix. Over the last 5 games at 3-2 with 4.4 runs per game, they’ve shown balanced scoring that can pressure opponents consistently. Ketel Marte’s production has been pivotal in stabilizing the middle of the order, giving them an edge in leverage situations.
The Diamondbacks have gone 6-4 in their last 10 while averaging 4.7 runs, reflecting a lineup capable of sustained offense. Corbin Carroll’s power presence complements Geraldo Perdomo’s run production, creating a multidimensional attack that matches well against Boston’s road splits. At home, Arizona Diamondbacks’ consistency in both scoring and situational hitting positions them as the sharper side.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 692
- Home Runs: 194
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.436
- OPS: 0.758
- ERA: 4.45
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 34-38 • Home Record: 36-33
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Arizona Diamondbacks’ steady 36-33 home form, combined with a 6-4 stretch in their last 10, underlines their reliability in this setting against a Boston team that sits below .500 on the road. With Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll driving consistent offensive output, the Diamondbacks’ lineup matches up favorably and makes them the sharper moneyline side.
The Arizona Diamondbacks at +105 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.4 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 5.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetUS, BetMGM, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
