MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds (Friday, September 5 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -128 | +106 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (125) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Record | 75–65 | 70–70 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Cincinnati Reds
The Mets’ last 10 games have surged to 8.1 runs per outing, a pace that sets the tone for this MLB prediction against a Reds club stuck at 4.7 runs in the same span. New York Mets’ lineup has consistently pushed games past scoring expectations, while Cincinnati Reds’ inconsistency keeps them vulnerable. With the Mets carrying stronger offensive rhythm and the Reds struggling to sustain production, the edge tilts toward New York and a game environment primed for heavy scoring.
Game Time
Taking place at Friday, September 5 at 06:40 PM ET inside Great American Ball Park, fly balls leave in a hurry.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -128
- Cincinnati Reds: +106
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+125)
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-145)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 75-65 (Win %: 0.536)
Cincinnati Reds: 70-70 (Win %: 0.5)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.271 AVG, 33 HR, 113 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.259 AVG, 37 HR, 91 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.265 AVG, 26 HR, 77 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.269 AVG, 19 HR, 78 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.313 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI
- Noelvi Marte: 0.292 AVG, 12 HR, 47 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets enter with a 75-65 record and a recent 2-3 stretch in their last five, where the offense produced 6.6 runs per game. Despite that slight stumble, the broader 6-4 mark across the last 10 contests reflects stability, driven by an offense that has consistently kept pressure on opponents. Pete Alonso’s run production and Juan Soto’s power presence give New York the ability to cash in scoring opportunities even when pitching allows runs.
The Mets’ road record has been underwhelming at 30-38, but their offensive surge in recent weeks offsets that weakness. Francisco Lindor’s balanced contributions add depth, ensuring the lineup doesn’t rely solely on one bat. With their scoring pace showing no signs of slowing, New York Mets’ offensive edge makes them the sharper side in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 674
- Home Runs: 193
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.431
- OPS: 0.761
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 30-38 • Home Record: 45-27
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (8.1 RPG)
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds sit at 70-70 and have stumbled with just a 2-3 mark in their last five outings, scoring 6.4 runs per game in that stretch. The larger 3-7 record in their last 10 reflects instability, as the offense has dipped to 4.7 runs on average. Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot, but the inconsistent run support has left Cincinnati struggling to convert chances into wins.
At home, the Reds are 38-33, showing they can compete in this venue, yet recent form suggests the advantage is muted. Miguel Andujar’s high average and Noelvi Marte’s steady production provide balance, but the lack of sustained firepower has held them back. Against a Mets lineup firing at a higher scoring pace, Cincinnati Reds’ uneven play makes them a weaker moneyline option.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 634
- Home Runs: 138
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.393
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 3.95
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 32-37 • Home Record: 38-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Cincinnati Reds lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- July 20, 2025: CIN 2 @ NYM 3
- July 19, 2025: CIN 5 @ NYM 2
- July 18, 2025: CIN 8 @ NYM 4
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 14.0 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 11.0 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ 6-4 record in their last 10, paired with a scoring pace of over eight runs during that span, positions them as the superior side against a Reds team that has dropped seven of ten. With Alonso, Soto, and Lindor driving consistent offense while Cincinnati struggles to string wins together, the Mets carry the sharper edge to secure the result outright.
We’re backing the New York Mets — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Cincinnati Reds have produced 6.4 RPG and the New York Mets 6.6. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 13.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics, Bovada, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds MLB predictions?
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How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 05, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
