MLB Prediction: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies (Thursday, August 28 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +160 | -189 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-120) | -1.5 (101) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.0 | 3.4 |
| Record | 61–72 | 76–56 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia has built a reputation for grinding out results at home, where they stand 42-22, while Atlanta Braves’ away struggles at 28-39 create a clear betting preview edge. The Phillies’ ability to control tempo has kept several recent games tight, with their last five averaging just 3.4 runs per game compared to the Braves’ 6.0. That contrast in offensive rhythm positions Philadelphia as the sharper side, especially when considering a combined 9.4 RPG over the same stretch that aligns closely with the current total. This MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Phillies’ consistency and the Under as the smarter angle.
Game Time
On tap at Thursday, August 28 at 06:45 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, a power-friendly setting.
Odds & Spread Line
- Atlanta Braves: +160
- Philadelphia Phillies: -189
Total: 9.5
- Run Line — Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-120)
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+101)
Latest Team Records
Atlanta Braves: 61-72 (Win %: 0.459)
Philadelphia Phillies: 76-56 (Win %: 0.576)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Atlanta Braves
- Matt Olson: 0.265 AVG, 20 HR, 74 RBI
- Michael Harris II: 0.251 AVG, 17 HR, 71 RBI
- Ronald Acuna Jr.: 0.301 AVG, 15 HR, 31 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.245 AVG, 45 HR, 110 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.298 AVG, 14 HR, 61 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.267 AVG, 21 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Atlanta Braves
The Braves enter with a 61-72 record and a road split of 28-39 that has consistently undermined their ability to generate momentum. Their last 5 games at 3-2 (6.0 RPG) suggest they can score in bursts, but maintaining that consistency away from home has been a season-long issue. While Matt Olson has delivered steady run production, the broader lineup performance has not translated into sustained success against stronger home teams.
Over the last 10 games, Atlanta sits at 6-4 (6.3 RPG), which shows competence but not dominance, especially given the quality of competition they now face. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s on-base ability adds pressure, yet the Braves’ uneven road scoring track record continues to weigh heavily. Michael Harris II has added balance, but the numbers point toward an offense that still lacks the edge to consistently outperform a superior home squad.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 582
- Home Runs: 147
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.393
- OPS: 0.713
- ERA: 4.35
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 28-39 • Home Record: 33-33
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.3 RPG)
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies’ 76-56 record is backed by a dominant 42-22 home mark, which has been the foundation of their season. Despite a 2-3 stretch over the last 5 games (3.4 RPG) that highlights some inconsistency, their pitching and run prevention have kept them competitive. Kyle Schwarber’s power presence ensures any offensive lull can flip quickly into production, especially in a hitter-friendly park.
Across the last 10 games, the Phillies stand at 6-4 (6.1 RPG), maintaining a steady rhythm that aligns with their season-long edge. Trea Turner’s ability to create scoring chances adds balance to Schwarber’s power, while Bryce Harper’s steady output reinforces lineup depth. Their strong home form combined with balanced offensive distribution makes them a reliable side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.257
- Total Runs Scored: 625
- Home Runs: 161
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.422
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.83
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 34-35 • Home Record: 42-22
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Philadelphia Phillies lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- June 29, 2025: PHI 2 @ ATL 1
- June 28, 2025: PHI 1 @ ATL 6
- June 27, 2025: PHI 13 @ ATL 0
- May 29, 2025: ATL 9 @ PHI 3
- May 29, 2025: ATL 4 @ PHI 5
- May 27, 2025: ATL 0 @ PHI 2
- April 10, 2025: PHI 2 @ ATL 4
- April 09, 2025: PHI 4 @ ATL 3
Over/Under Trends
Atlanta Braves’ last 10 games have averaged 11.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.5.
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 11.9 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 9.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies’ dominant 42-22 home record paired with a 5-3 head-to-head edge against Atlanta in recent meetings makes them the clear side. With Kyle Schwarber driving power, Trea Turner generating speed and contact, and Bryce Harper providing steady production, the Phillies’ lineup balance and situational edge at home create a decisive advantage.
We’re backing the Philadelphia Phillies — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Philadelphia Phillies have produced 3.4 RPG and the Atlanta Braves 6.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 9.5. That points toward the Under 9.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
