MLB Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers (Thursday, August 28 at 02:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | ARI | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-147) | -1.5 (125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Record | 64–69 | 83–50 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Arizona Diamondbacks · Milwaukee Brewers
The Arizona Diamondbacks enter this matchup analysis against the Milwaukee Brewers with a recent scoring pace of 5.4 runs per game in their last five, highlighting their offensive punch at the right time. Milwaukee has slowed with just 3.9 runs per game across its last 10, while Arizona Diamondbacks’ bats have kept them in games despite a sub-.500 record. This MLB prediction leans toward Arizona leveraging its lineup depth to outscore a Brewers team that has looked less consistent at the plate, setting up value on the road side and a strong case for the total to push past expectations.
Game Time
On tap at Thursday, August 28 at 02:10 PM ET at American Family Field, roofed conditions stabilize carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Arizona Diamondbacks: +145
- Milwaukee Brewers: -175
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-147)
- Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+125)
Latest Team Records
Arizona Diamondbacks: 64-69 (Win %: 0.481)
Milwaukee Brewers: 83-50 (Win %: 0.624)
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Pavin Smith (Leg), listed as Day-To-Day; Ryan Thompson (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Anthony DeSclafani (Thumb), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Milwaukee Brewers are missing Joey Ortiz (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL; DL Hall (Oblique), listed as 15-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Geraldo Perdomo: 0.291 AVG, 14 HR, 86 RBI
- Ketel Marte: 0.29 AVG, 23 HR, 60 RBI
- Corbin Carroll: 0.258 AVG, 27 HR, 67 RBI
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich: 0.271 AVG, 26 HR, 90 RBI
- Brice Turang: 0.285 AVG, 15 HR, 67 RBI
- Jackson Chourio: 0.276 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI
Team Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ 2-3 record in their last five games shows inconsistency, yet their 5.4 runs per game over that stretch confirms the lineup is producing at a steady pace. Geraldo Perdomo has been a reliable table-setter, while Ketel Marte’s power threat continues to drive this offense into favorable scoring positions. That run production, paired with a 31-37 road record, demonstrates that Arizona is still capable of outperforming expectations when the bats are active.
Corbin Carroll’s ability to add extra-base hits has kept pitchers under pressure, and this complements a lineup that can stack runs quickly. While the overall season record remains below .500, their recent output of 4.8 runs per game across the last 10 contests suggests a balanced offense finding rhythm. With the Brewers struggling to suppress runs lately, Arizona Diamondbacks’ offensive consistency gives them a clear path to push past Milwaukee on the road.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 658
- Home Runs: 184
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.439
- OPS: 0.764
- ERA: 4.58
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 31-37 • Home Record: 34-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.8 RPG)
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ 2-3 record in the last five games and 4-6 mark in the last 10 highlight a team that has cooled off despite owning one of the league’s best overall records. Christian Yelich remains the cornerstone of their lineup with steady run production, but the rest of the order has not consistently backed him up in recent contests. Their home record of 45-23 is strong, yet recent run totals show a dip in offensive efficiency.
Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have provided flashes of production, but with only 3.9 runs per game across the last 10, Milwaukee Brewers’ bats have not matched their season-long dominance. That downturn presents vulnerability against an Arizona offense that has been more consistent in recent weeks. Even with a pitching edge on paper, the Brewers’ inability to sustain scoring momentum at home makes them less attractive in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.258
- Total Runs Scored: 682
- Home Runs: 142
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.406
- OPS: 0.738
- ERA: 3.62
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 38-28 • Home Record: 45-23
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 3–3 (Last 6 games)
- August 27, 2025: ARI 3 @ MIL 2
- August 26, 2025: ARI 8 @ MIL 9
- August 25, 2025: ARI 5 @ MIL 7
- April 13, 2025: MIL 2 @ ARI 5
- April 12, 2025: MIL 4 @ ARI 5
- April 11, 2025: MIL 7 @ ARI 0
Over/Under Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.4 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Milwaukee Brewers’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent offensive consistency, with 5.4 runs per game in their last five, matches up well against a Brewers lineup averaging just 3.9 over the last 10. Head-to-head results are split, but the Diamondbacks’ ability to generate runs against Milwaukee pitching gives them the sharper edge in this spot.
Value-side alert: the Arizona Diamondbacks at +145 profile as the play.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Milwaukee Brewers at 4.4 RPG and the Arizona Diamondbacks at 5.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5 That points toward the Over 8.05.
Bookmakers
MLB Lines Available at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
