MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (Thursday, August 28 at 01:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -179 | +150 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 3.2 |
| Record | 73–60 | 60–72 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles
Boston enters this matchup on a 4-1 surge over the last five games, averaging 5.2 runs per contest, but Baltimore Orioles’ situational profile points to the sharper MLB prediction. The Orioles have shown resilience despite a 1-4 stretch, and their lineup anchored by Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday is capable of producing in tight, lower-scoring contests. With recent head-to-head results split 4–4, this game sets up as a value spot for Baltimore backed by their ability to keep scoring manageable at home.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Thursday, August 28 at 01:05 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -179
- Baltimore Orioles: +150
Total: 8
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (-105)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-115)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 73-60 (Win %: 0.549)
Baltimore Orioles: 60-72 (Win %: 0.455)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Jorge Mateo (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL; Albert Suarez (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL; Jordan Westburg (Ankle), listed as 10-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.26 AVG, 21 HR, 83 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.301 AVG, 16 HR, 53 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.281 AVG, 16 HR, 59 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.242 AVG, 15 HR, 49 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox’s 73-60 record reflects a consistent season, and their 4-1 stretch across the last five games shows they are finding rhythm. Trevor Story’s run production has been pivotal in keeping the offense steady, while Alex Bregman has provided balance in the lineup. Even with this momentum, Boston’s 33-35 road mark signals vulnerability away from home, creating a gap between overall success and situational performance.
Wilyer Abreu has added depth in recent weeks, but Boston’s reliance on timely hitting remains crucial as their scoring fluctuates. The team’s 6-4 performance over the last 10 contests demonstrates competence, though not dominance, and against divisional opponents they’ve struggled to consistently convert opportunities. The positive recent run does not erase the fact that their road splits leave them exposed in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 662
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.75
- ERA: 3.69
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 33-35 • Home Record: 41-25
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.2 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
At 60-72, Baltimore has been inconsistent across the season, but their home form at 31-36 gives them valuable experience in navigating tight games at Camden Yards. Gunnar Henderson has been the steady anchor in the lineup, and even with Jordan Westburg sidelined, Jackson Holliday has stepped into an important run-producing role. Despite a 1-4 run in their last five games, they’ve managed 3.2 RPG, keeping them competitive in lower-scoring contests.
The Orioles’ 4-6 mark over their last 10 games drives home inconsistency, yet their ability to manufacture runs in key innings has allowed them to stay in striking distance. Henderson’s impact at the plate ensures Baltimore has a reliable offensive core, while Holliday’s development adds depth. This profile, combined with their situational edge at home and a recent head-to-head split, positions Baltimore as the sharper side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.241
- Total Runs Scored: 570
- Home Runs: 159
- OBP: 0.306
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 4.69
- WHIP: 1.38
Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 31-36
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- August 27, 2025: BOS 3 @ BAL 2
- August 26, 2025: BOS 5 @ BAL 0
- August 25, 2025: BOS 4 @ BAL 3
- August 19, 2025: BAL 4 @ BOS 3
- August 18, 2025: BAL 6 @ BOS 3
- May 25, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 1
- May 24, 2025: BAL 2 @ BOS 1
- May 24, 2025: BAL 5 @ BOS 6
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 7.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Baltimore Orioles’ ability to stay competitive at home despite recent struggles, combined with Gunnar Henderson’s steady production and Jackson Holliday’s run support, makes them the sharper side. With the head-to-head series tied and Boston showing vulnerability on the road, the Orioles are positioned to capitalize and deliver the win.
Form and matchup create value on the Baltimore Orioles at +150.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 3.2 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 5.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0
Bookmakers
MLB markets at: FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
