MLB Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (Wednesday, August 27 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | PHI | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -156 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-164) | -1.5 (140) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 8.6 |
| Record | 76–55 | 70–61 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Philadelphia Phillies · New York Mets
New York Mets’ recent surge is impossible to ignore, with a 4-1 record in their last five while producing 8.6 runs per game, a clear signal for bettors targeting this MLB prediction. The Phillies have cooled off with a 2-3 stretch, showing uneven offense away from home compared to the Mets’ punishing output at Citi Field. With both lineups generating double-digit run averages across their last 10 contests, the value leans strongly toward the Mets and an Over on the total.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Wednesday, August 27 at 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field, a pitcher-leaning venue with muted carry.
Odds & Spread Line
- Philadelphia Phillies: +125
- New York Mets: -156
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-164)
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+140)
Latest Team Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 76-55 (Win %: 0.58)
New York Mets: 70-61 (Win %: 0.534)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.247 AVG, 45 HR, 110 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.299 AVG, 14 HR, 61 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 21 HR, 60 RBI
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.259 AVG, 29 HR, 103 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 32 HR, 77 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.262 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
Team Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ 2-3 record over their last 5 games reflects a team struggling to maintain rhythm, especially with just 4.2 runs per game in that stretch. Kyle Schwarber’s power remains a constant threat, but inconsistent support behind him has kept the lineup from fully capitalizing. Road form has been middling at 34-34, which aligns with their recent uneven play and limits their betting appeal against a home-dominant opponent.
In their broader 10-game sample at 6-4 with 6.1 runs per game, the offense does show bursts of productivity, with Trea Turner and Bryce Harper providing balance to Schwarber’s long-ball production. However, the inability to translate that into consistent road momentum keeps them vulnerable against higher-scoring teams. For bettors, the Phillies’ profile suggests volatility rather than reliability in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.257
- Total Runs Scored: 620
- Home Runs: 160
- OBP: 0.327
- SLG: 0.422
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.81
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 34-34 • Home Record: 42-22
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (6.1 RPG)
New York Mets
The Mets are surging with a 4-1 record in their last 5 games, averaging 8.6 runs per contest and showing dominance at the plate. Pete Alonso’s run production sets the tone, while Juan Soto’s consistent power adds another layer of danger. Their 43-24 home record reinforces their ability to convert offensive momentum into wins at Citi Field.
Over the last 10 games at 7-3 with 6.8 runs per game, the Mets have displayed both consistency and firepower, with Francisco Lindor adding timely hitting to complement Alonso and Soto. This scoring profile, combined with their home-field advantage, makes them a high-confidence play against a Phillies squad that has struggled to string wins together. The Mets’ combination of recent form and venue dominance makes them the superior betting side.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 606
- Home Runs: 176
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 28-37 • Home Record: 43-24
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (8.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- August 26, 2025: PHI 5 @ NYM 6
- August 25, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 13
- June 22, 2025: NYM 1 @ PHI 7
- June 21, 2025: NYM 11 @ PHI 4
- June 20, 2025: NYM 2 @ PHI 10
- April 23, 2025: PHI 3 @ NYM 4
- April 22, 2025: PHI 1 @ NYM 5
- April 21, 2025: PHI 4 @ NYM 5
Over/Under Trends
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 11.5 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 10.8 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ balance of power hitting and consistent run production, combined with a 43-24 home record and a 6-2 head-to-head edge in recent meetings, makes them the clear moneyline side. With Alonso, Soto, and Lindor fueling an offense that has produced 8.6 RPG in their last five, the Mets are positioned to extend their dominance over Philadelphia.
The New York Mets are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the New York Mets are at 8.6 RPG and the Philadelphia Phillies at 4.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 12.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 27, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
