Introduction

More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · Arizona Diamondbacks

Cincinnati enters this matchup analysis with steadier form than Arizona, having split their last 10 games at 5–5 while keeping opponents to an average of 8.3 total runs in that span. The Diamondbacks sit below .500 overall and remain inconsistent despite averaging 4.8 RPG across their last 10. With the Reds holding a 3–1 edge in recent head-to-head contests, this MLB prediction points directly toward Cincinnati Reds’ ability to control tempo and outperform Arizona in a lower-scoring contest.

Game Time

Coverage starts at Saturday, August 23 at 08:10 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.

Odds & Spread Line

• Cincinnati Reds: -130
• Arizona Diamondbacks: +110

Total: 9

• Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+128)
• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-150)

Latest Team Records

Cincinnati Reds: 67-61 (Win %: 0.523)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 62-66 (Win %: 0.484)

Injury Report

The Cincinnati Reds are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Ryan Thompson (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Anthony DeSclafani (Thumb), listed as 15-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Cincinnati Reds

• Elly De La Cruz: 0.273 AVG, 19 HR, 76 RBI
• Miguel Andujar: 0.313 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBI
• Noelvi Marte: 0.306 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.287 AVG, 13 HR, 81 RBI
• Ketel Marte: 0.293 AVG, 23 HR, 56 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.253 AVG, 27 HR, 65 RBI

Team Analysis

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have managed a 3–2 record in their last 5 games, producing 3.8 RPG, which illustrates a steady but not explosive offensive rhythm. On the road, they sit close to even at 31–33, but their ability to grind out competitive contests makes them a reliable betting side. Elly De La Cruz has been central to keeping the lineup balanced, and his production provides a consistent threat that Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has struggled to contain in recent meetings.

Looking over their last 10 games at 5–5 with 4.7 RPG, Cincinnati has maintained enough scoring consistency to stay above .500 overall. Miguel Andujar and Noelvi Marte continue to add depth to the order, giving the Reds multiple productive bats that can manufacture runs even in lower-scoring environments. With a team ERA under 4.00, Cincinnati pairs competent offense with effective pitching, a combination that tips the edge firmly in their direction.

• Batting Average: 0.248
• Total Runs Scored: 581
• Home Runs: 127
• OBP: 0.318
• SLG: 0.392
• OPS: 0.71
• ERA: 3.79
• WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 31-33 • Home Record: 36-29
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have gone 3–2 across their last 5 games, averaging 4.2 RPG, which reflects modest offense without consistent surges. At home, they are 33–31, showing slight stability but not enough to reliably cover against a team with Cincinnati Reds’ balance. Geraldo Perdomo has been an RBI driver, but Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup has leaned too heavily on isolated performances rather than collective rhythm.

Over their last 10 games, Arizona sits at 6–4 and 4.8 RPG, but their pitching staff’s ERA north of 4.50 undermines those offensive efforts. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll bring power but are offset by a bullpen prone to allowing runs late, which has cost them in tight contests. Against a Cincinnati side that has already beaten them in three of their last four meetings, Arizona Diamondbacks’ home edge is unlikely to shift the outcome.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 628
• Home Runs: 178
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.439
• OPS: 0.765
• ERA: 4.55
• WHIP: 1.33

Away Record: 30-35 • Home Record: 33-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.8 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Cincinnati Reds lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)

• August 22, 2025: CIN 5 @ ARI 6
• June 08, 2025: ARI 2 @ CIN 4
• June 07, 2025: ARI 1 @ CIN 13
• June 06, 2025: ARI 3 @ CIN 4

Over/Under Trends

Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.3 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 9.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Cincinnati Reds’ balanced profile of steady run production, favorable head-to-head record, and stronger pitching efficiency makes them the sharper side against Arizona. The Reds have shown the ability to control games on the road while limiting opponents below the posted total, and their offensive depth ensures they can capitalize on Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen weaknesses. With recent series history firmly in their favor, Cincinnati is positioned to extend their edge and secure another victory.

Form and matchup edges favor the Cincinnati Reds — back them.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.2 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds at 3.8, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.

Bookmakers

Data pulled from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS, Fanatics.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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