MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals (Thursday, August 21 at 04:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYM | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -139 | +116 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (122) | +1.5 (-146) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| Record | 67–58 | 50–75 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Mets · Washington Nationals
The Mets enter this matchup analysis off a 3-2 stretch in their last five with 6.2 runs per game, a scoring pace that positions them favorably against a Nationals side stuck at 3.8 RPG over the same span. Washington Nationals’ season record remains well below .500, while New York has maintained a winning mark and stronger offensive consistency. With a head-to-head edge already established, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward the Mets’ ability to extend their dominance while pushing the total higher than expected.
Game Time
On tap at Thursday, August 21 at 04:05 PM ET at Nationals Park, a neutral setting for totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -139
- Washington Nationals: +116
Total: 8
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (+122)
- Run Line — Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-146)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 67-58 (Win %: 0.536)
Washington Nationals: 50-75 (Win %: 0.4)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.265 AVG, 28 HR, 100 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 31 HR, 72 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.258 AVG, 24 HR, 71 RBI
Washington Nationals
- James Wood: 0.256 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI
- CJ Abrams: 0.267 AVG, 16 HR, 49 RBI
- Luis Garcia Jr.: 0.263 AVG, 9 HR, 51 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ 3-2 mark across their last five games reflects a balanced stretch, with 6.2 runs per game underscoring their offensive rhythm. Despite a sub-.500 road record, their scoring consistency has been strong enough to offset travel disadvantages. Pete Alonso’s run production continues to anchor the lineup, ensuring the Mets remain a reliable side to generate meaningful offense in this series.
Juan Soto’s power and Francisco Lindor’s all-around contributions provide depth that has helped the Mets maintain a 4-6 record over their last ten while still averaging 6.3 RPG. That level of sustained scoring highlights why New York Mets’ offense is more trustworthy than Washington Nationals’, especially in high-leverage divisional games. Even with road challenges, the Mets’ lineup composition gives them the clear upper hand.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 562
- Home Runs: 164
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.418
- OPS: 0.74
- ERA: 3.76
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 26-35 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (6.3 RPG)
Washington Nationals
The Nationals’ 2-3 record across their last five reflects inconsistency, with only 3.8 RPG in that span. James Wood has been their most reliable source of production, but the supporting cast has struggled to match his output. At home, Washington Nationals’ losing record emphasizes a lack of confidence when facing stronger divisional opponents like New York.
Over their last ten contests, the Nationals have split 5-5, but scoring only 4.7 RPG does not project well against a Mets team averaging well above six. CJ Abrams adds athleticism and Luis Garcia Jr. provides occasional pop, yet the overall offensive ceiling remains limited. That gap in run creation makes Washington a risky side against a Mets lineup that has already proven its superiority in head-to-head play.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 532
- Home Runs: 118
- OBP: 0.308
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.695
- ERA: 5.35
- WHIP: 1.44
Away Record: 26-36 • Home Record: 25-39
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- August 20, 2025: NYM 4 @ WSH 5
- August 19, 2025: NYM 8 @ WSH 1
- June 12, 2025: WSH 3 @ NYM 4
- June 11, 2025: WSH 0 @ NYM 5
- June 10, 2025: WSH 4 @ NYM 5
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.8 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Washington Nationals’ last 10 games have averaged 10.0 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Mets’ consistent run production, superior head-to-head record, and ability to generate offense through Alonso, Soto, and Lindor make them the clear side to trust. Washington Nationals’ weaker home record and lower scoring pace leave them overmatched against a lineup that has already dominated this series. The Mets’ combination of power and sustained scoring ensures they are the side with the decisive edge.
We’re backing the New York Mets to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Washington Nationals have produced 3.8 RPG and the New York Mets 6.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, Bovada, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
