MLB Prediction: San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres (Thursday, August 21 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | SF | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150 | -169 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Record | 61–65 | 70–56 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: San Francisco Giants · San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres’ 39-21 home record contrasts sharply with San Francisco Giants’ 2-8 mark over its last 10, setting the tone for this MLB prediction. The Padres’ recent scoring slump at 2.8 runs per game across the last five contests offsets their record advantage, while the Giants have shown slightly more offensive push with 3.8 runs per game in that same span. With both lineups producing below-average totals, this matchup analysis points directly at value on the underdog road side and a conservative scoring environment.
Game Time
The action begins at Thursday, August 21 at 04:10 PM ET inside Petco Park, conservative scoring is typical.
Odds & Spread Line
- San Francisco Giants: +150
- San Diego Padres: -169
Total: 8
- Run Line — San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-145)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+125)
Latest Team Records
San Francisco Giants: 61-65 (Win %: 0.484)
San Diego Padres: 70-56 (Win %: 0.556)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
San Francisco Giants
- Rafael Devers: 0.255 AVG, 24 HR, 82 RBI
- Heliot Ramos: 0.265 AVG, 15 HR, 53 RBI
- Wilmer Flores: 0.25 AVG, 13 HR, 63 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Manny Machado: 0.292 AVG, 20 HR, 73 RBI
- Ramon Laureano: 0.294 AVG, 19 HR, 58 RBI
- Ryan O’Hearn: 0.277 AVG, 15 HR, 51 RBI
Team Analysis
San Francisco Giants
The Giants enter this contest with a 61-65 record and a clear need to stabilize their form. Their last 5 games produced a 2-3 record with 3.8 runs per game, showing flashes of offensive rhythm despite inconsistency. standouts like Rafael Devers have been central to run production, and the lineup has demonstrated the ability to generate timely hits even when overall scoring has dipped.
Over their last 10 games, San Francisco has gone 2-8 with just 2.4 runs per game, signaling a slump that requires immediate correction. However, their road record of 31-32 shows they compete better away from home than their overall mark suggests. With Heliot Ramos and Wilmer Flores adding depth to the order, the Giants carry enough offensive tools to capitalize on San Diego Padres’ recent scoring struggles and tilt value toward the visiting side.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 510
- Home Runs: 120
- OBP: 0.309
- SLG: 0.375
- OPS: 0.683
- ERA: 3.68
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 31-32 • Home Record: 30-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (2.4 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres own a stronger 70-56 record and an impressive 39-21 home mark, but their recent form is concerning. Across their last 5 games they’ve gone 1-4 while averaging just 2.8 runs, highlighting a lack of offensive execution. Manny Machado remains a reliable bat, yet without consistent support, the Padres have failed to translate their season-long record into recent wins.
In their last 10 outings, San Diego has managed a 6-4 record with 4.5 runs per game, but the contrast between that stretch and their current 1-4 skid points to volatility. Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn have provided production, but the lineup has not delivered consistently in high-leverage spots. Despite the strong overall home record, their current offensive dip gives the Giants a clear opportunity to seize value in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 523
- Home Runs: 106
- OBP: 0.322
- SLG: 0.382
- OPS: 0.704
- ERA: 3.55
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 31-35 • Home Record: 39-21
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- August 19, 2025: SF 1 @ SD 5
- August 18, 2025: SF 4 @ SD 3
- August 13, 2025: SD 11 @ SF 1
- August 12, 2025: SD 5 @ SF 1
- August 11, 2025: SD 4 @ SF 1
Over/Under Trends
San Francisco Giants’ last 10 games have averaged 7.4 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Giants’ road performance, combined with San Diego Padres’ current 1-4 skid and offensive struggles, makes them the sharper side despite the Padres’ superior overall record. San Francisco Giants’ lineup has enough support from contributors like Devers, Ramos, and Flores to take advantage of a home team trending downward in run production. Factoring in the Padres’ inconsistency, the Giants are the more reliable play in this matchup.
The San Francisco Giants at +150 check enough boxes to be the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the San Diego Padres have produced 2.8 RPG and the San Francisco Giants 3.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 6.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Under 8.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, Bovada, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
