MLB Prediction: Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles (Thursday, August 21 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | HOU | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -112 | -114 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (150) | +1.5 (-186) |
| Last 5 RPG | 1.4 | 6.6 |
| Record | 69–57 | 59–67 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Houston Astros · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore enters this matchup with momentum after going 4-1 over its last five contests while averaging 6.6 runs per game, a stark contrast to Houston Astros’ 1-4 stretch at just 1.4 RPG. This betting preview points directly to the Orioles’ offensive rhythm and Houston Astros’ scoring slump as the decisive factors in the upcoming game. With recent head-to-head results also favoring Baltimore, the data tilts firmly toward the home side prevailing in a lower-scoring environment.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Thursday, August 21 at 07:15 PM ET inside Camden Yards, aggressive lineups find extra bases.
Odds & Spread Line
- Houston Astros: -112
- Baltimore Orioles: -114
Total: 9
- Run Line — Houston Astros: -1.5 (+150)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-186)
Latest Team Records
Houston Astros: 69-57 (Win %: 0.548)
Baltimore Orioles: 59-67 (Win %: 0.468)
Injury Report
Houston Astros are missing Jake Meyers (Calf), listed as 10-Day-IL; Isaac Paredes (Hamstring), listed as 60-Day-IL; Zach Dezenzo (Hand), listed as 60-Day-IL; Ronel Blanco (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Jordan Westburg (Ankle), listed as Day-To-Day; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Houston Astros
- Jose Altuve: 0.278 AVG, 22 HR, 64 RBI
- Jeremy Pena: 0.31 AVG, 13 HR, 45 RBI
- Isaac Paredes: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 50 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.281 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.276 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.248 AVG, 15 HR, 48 RBI
Team Analysis
Houston Astros
The Astros’ recent form has been defined by inconsistency, with a 1-4 record in their last five games and only 1.4 runs per game in that span. Their road record sits exactly at .500, underlining the lack of edge when traveling. Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena remain core pieces, but their production has not been enough to offset the lineup’s current scoring drought.
Over the last ten games, Houston has managed just 2.6 runs per contest, a clear slump that points to diminished offensive rhythm. Even with Isaac Paredes’ power threat earlier in the season, the lineup has failed to sustain rallies, leaving run support thin. This lack of consistent scoring makes them a risky play against a Baltimore side finding its offensive stride at home.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 530
- Home Runs: 136
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.399
- OPS: 0.718
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 31-31 • Home Record: 38-27
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (1.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (2.6 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have surged with a 4-1 record in their last five games while averaging 6.6 runs per contest, proving their lineup is in rhythm. Gunnar Henderson’s steady production has set the tone, while Jackson Holliday adds balance to an offense that has been stringing together consistent innings. Their even 30-30 home record now looks more threatening given the recent scoring lift at Camden Yards.
Across ten games, Baltimore has averaged 4.7 runs, showing sustainable offensive output that contrasts Houston Astros’ slump. Even with Jordan Westburg listed day-to-day, the Orioles’ depth has carried them through, and the ability to generate power with 151 home runs on the season keeps them dangerous. With efficiency at the plate and confidence from recent head-to-head wins, Baltimore enters with the clear edge.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 547
- Home Runs: 151
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 4.65
- WHIP: 1.38
Away Record: 29-37 • Home Record: 30-30
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Baltimore Orioles lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- August 17, 2025: BAL 12 @ HOU 0
- August 16, 2025: BAL 4 @ HOU 5
- August 15, 2025: BAL 7 @ HOU 0
Over/Under Trends
Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.9 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Baltimore Orioles’ recent offensive surge, combined with Houston Astros’ extended scoring slump, positions the Orioles as the sharper side. Their ability to generate runs consistently at home, backed by Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, has already translated into two dominant head-to-head wins this series. With Houston struggling to produce on the road, Baltimore holds the decisive edge to secure another victory.
Confidence sits with the Baltimore Orioles based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 6.6 RPG and the Houston Astros at 1.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 8.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, Bovada, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
