MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays (Wednesday, August 20 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +106 | -116 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (170) |
| Last 5 RPG | 7.6 | 4.2 |
| Record | 67–57 | 61–64 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS, Bovada, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, MyBookie.ag | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 stretch in their last five games, producing 7.6 runs per outing and overwhelming opponents with consistent offensive pressure. Tampa Bay has been far less convincing, averaging only 4.2 runs in that same span and struggling to maintain rhythm at home. With New York Yankees’ recent scoring surge and Tampa Bay Rays’ uneven production, this MLB prediction points firmly toward the Yankees’ bats carrying the edge while the total trends toward a high-scoring finish.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Wednesday, August 20 at 07:35 PM ET at Tropicana Field, unders find support.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: +106
- Tampa Bay Rays: -116
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Yankees: +1.5 (-200)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+170)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 67-57 (Win %: 0.54)
Tampa Bay Rays: 61-64 (Win %: 0.488)
Injury Report
New York Yankees are missing Clarke Schmidt (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Tampa Bay Rays are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.333 AVG, 39 HR, 91 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.266 AVG, 22 HR, 72 RBI
- Giancarlo Stanton: 0.299 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.258 AVG, 35 HR, 85 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.283 AVG, 20 HR, 71 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ recent 4-1 mark over the last five games reflects a surge in confidence and offensive dominance, averaging 7.6 runs per game in that stretch. That level of scoring efficiency highlights the impact of core bats like Aaron Judge, who continues to anchor the lineup with power, and Cody Bellinger, who adds balance in run production. On the road, a 31-32 record shows they’ve been competitive enough away from home to trust their bats to travel.
Over the last 10 games, the Yankees have gone 7-3 while averaging 6.2 runs per contest, cementing their rhythm as one of the league’s most dangerous lineups right now. Giancarlo Stanton’s presence adds another layer of consistency to the order, producing timely hits that stretch opposing staffs thin. With that blend of veteran power and sustained scoring, New York is positioned to extend its recent dominance against Tampa Bay.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 649
- Home Runs: 204
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.452
- OPS: 0.784
- ERA: 4.01
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 31-32 • Home Record: 37-25
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (7.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.2 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays enter this game with a 3-2 record in their last five and 4-6 across their last 10, suggesting inconsistency in both results and offensive output. A 4.2 runs-per-game pace recently spotlights the uneven nature of their scoring, with Junior Caminero providing much of the heavy lifting in terms of long-ball production. Playing at home, their 32-31 record shows only marginal advantage, leaving little margin for error against a surging Yankees lineup.
Yandy Diaz has offered steady contact hitting, while Brandon Lowe contributes occasional bursts of power, but the supporting cast has not elevated the offense consistently. The 3.7 runs per game over the last 10 contests is well below New York Yankees’ output, leaving Tampa Bay exposed if the game tilts into a higher-scoring pace. Unless multiple bats heat up simultaneously, the Rays’ offense lacks the firepower to match New York Yankees’ current form.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 559
- Home Runs: 137
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.397
- OPS: 0.71
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 29-34 • Home Record: 32-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- August 19, 2025: NYY 13 @ TB 3
- July 31, 2025: TB 4 @ NYY 7
- July 30, 2025: TB 4 @ NYY 5
- July 29, 2025: TB 5 @ NYY 7
- July 28, 2025: TB 4 @ NYY 2
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.3 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ 7-3 record over their last 10 combined with a 4-1 head-to-head edge against Tampa Bay spotlights their superior form. Their offense is outproducing the Rays by nearly three runs per game recently, and the proven impact of hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton creates a clear path to another win. With Tampa Bay struggling to sustain scoring at home, the Yankees are the side carrying decisive momentum.
Mismatch vs perception: the New York Yankees at +106 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Tampa Bay Rays at 4.2 RPG and the New York Yankees at 7.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 11.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers, BetUS.
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