Introduction

More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Arizona Diamondbacks

Cleveland Guardians’ recent 1-4 record in their last five contests, averaging just 2.6 runs per game, highlights a team struggling to generate offense, while Arizona Diamondbacks’ steadier home rhythm sets the stage for a cross-league matchup analysis that favors the National League side. This MLB prediction leans toward the Diamondbacks’ ability to capitalize on Cleveland Guardians’ road inconsistency and muted scoring profile. With both squads trending toward lower combined outputs, the sharper betting edge lies with Arizona and a conservative total read.

Game Time

This one goes at Wednesday, August 20 at 03:40 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.

Odds & Spread Line

• Cleveland Guardians: +109
• Arizona Diamondbacks: -120

Total: 9

• Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-185)
• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+157)

Latest Team Records

Cleveland Guardians: 64-60 (Win %: 0.516)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 60-66 (Win %: 0.476)

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians are missing Ben Lively (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Gabriel Moreno (Finger), listed as 60-Day-IL; Ryan Thompson (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Anthony DeSclafani (Thumb), listed as 15-Day-IL; Kevin Ginkel (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Key Player Stats

Cleveland Guardians

• Jose Ramirez: 0.29 AVG, 25 HR, 64 RBI
• Kyle Manzardo: 0.236 AVG, 21 HR, 55 RBI
• Steven Kwan: 0.28 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Ketel Marte: 0.295 AVG, 23 HR, 56 RBI
• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.287 AVG, 13 HR, 80 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.251 AVG, 27 HR, 64 RBI

Team Analysis

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians enter this matchup with a 64-60 record but a concerning 1-4 mark across their last five games, scoring just 2.6 runs per outing. That slump emphasizes their inability to sustain rallies even with Jose Ramirez’s middle-of-the-order production. On the road, their 33-30 split shows they can grind out wins, but the lack of consistent scoring pressure makes them a risky side against a team with more offensive punch at home.

Steven Kwan has provided contact and on-base value, while Kyle Manzardo has flashed power, yet the collective lineup has not translated those contributions into reliable run support. Their 4-6 stretch over the last 10 games, with 3.7 RPG, reinforces the inconsistency that undermines betting confidence. Against a Diamondbacks lineup that can exploit scoring lulls, Cleveland Guardians’ current form leaves them vulnerable to another underwhelming offensive effort.

• Batting Average: 0.227
• Total Runs Scored: 491
• Home Runs: 131
• OBP: 0.299
• SLG: 0.375
• OPS: 0.674
• ERA: 3.86
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 33-30 • Home Record: 31-31
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.7 RPG)

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks sit at 60-66 overall and have split their home slate at 31-31, but their offensive profile remains more dependable than Cleveland Guardians’. Ketel Marte continues to set the tone with balanced power and average, while Corbin Carroll’s run production adds depth to the order. Their 1-4 record across the last five games reflects recent stumbles, yet averaging 4.4 RPG in that span demonstrates they are still generating more consistent scoring opportunities than their opponent.

Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to drive in runs has been a stabilizing factor, and the Diamondbacks’ 5-5 stretch across the last 10 games with 5.8 RPG shows they are capable of sustaining offensive pressure at home. Even in losses, their scoring pace has been superior to Cleveland Guardians’, giving them a distinct advantage when the game tightens late. This balance of production across the lineup positions Arizona as the sharper moneyline side.

• Batting Average: 0.25
• Total Runs Scored: 619
• Home Runs: 176
• OBP: 0.326
• SLG: 0.439
• OPS: 0.764
• ERA: 4.57
• WHIP: 1.34

Away Record: 30-35 • Home Record: 31-31
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.8 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)

• August 19, 2025: CLE 5 @ ARI 6
• August 18, 2025: CLE 3 @ ARI 1

Over/Under Trends

Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 8.8 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 10.7 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 9.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Arizona Diamondbacks’ home form paired with a deeper offensive core makes them the sharper moneyline side. The Guardians’ 1-4 skid with just 2.6 RPG emphasizes their lack of scoring punch, while the Diamondbacks’ lineup, led by Ketel Marte and supported by Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll, continues to generate more consistent run support. With head-to-head results already split and Arizona showing the stronger scoring baseline, the data points decisively toward the Diamondbacks controlling this matchup.

Data supports the Arizona Diamondbacks as the right side.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.4 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians at 2.6, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 7.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.

Bookmakers

You’ll find these markets at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Fanatics, Bovada, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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