MLB Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Tuesday, August 19 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
TOR @ PIT
TOR -156
PIT +130
O/U 7.5
| Market / Trend | TOR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -156 | +130 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (110) | +1.5 (-133) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| Record | 73–53 | 53–73 |
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Updated Aug 19, 2025 02:10 PM ET • Lines: Consensus |
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More MLB picks: Toronto Blue Jays · Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh enters this interleague matchup analysis with a home record of 35-29, a stark contrast to Toronto’s 31-32 road mark. The Blue Jays are averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last five, while the Pirates are at 3.4, producing a combined 9.0 runs per contest that leans toward the Over. This MLB prediction is shaped by Pittsburgh Pirates’ ability to elevate at home and Toronto’s inconsistency away, creating a prime spot for value on the Pirates and a total that trends past the posted number.
Game Time
Game time: Tuesday, August 19 at 06:40 PM ET inside PNC Park, scoring tends to flatten.
Odds & Spread Line
- Toronto Blue Jays: -156
- Pittsburgh Pirates: +130
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+110)
- Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-133)
Latest Team Records
Toronto Blue Jays: 73-53 (Win %: 0.579)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 53-73 (Win %: 0.421)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.297 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.298 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI
- George Springer: 0.289 AVG, 19 HR, 59 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds: 0.242 AVG, 13 HR, 62 RBI
- Oneil Cruz: 0.207 AVG, 18 HR, 51 RBI
- Andrew McCutchen: 0.239 AVG, 11 HR, 41 RBI
Team Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s 73-53 record demonstrates season-long consistency, but their 31-32 road split tells a different story. Over the last five games they’ve gone 3-2, averaging 5.6 runs per contest, which reflects offensive potential but not dominance. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. providing production, the Blue Jays remain dangerous, yet their road inconsistency limits trust against a team that thrives at home.
Looking deeper at their last 10, Toronto is just 5-5 with 4.1 runs per game, signaling that their scoring pace cools when stretched over a longer sample. George Springer adds balance, but their away inconsistency remains a defining factor. Against a Pirates team that has shown the ability to seize momentum at home, Toronto’s neutral recent form is not enough to inspire confidence in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.268
- Total Runs Scored: 617
- Home Runs: 148
- OBP: 0.338
- SLG: 0.429
- OPS: 0.766
- ERA: 4.25
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 31-32 • Home Record: 42-21
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.1 RPG)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates’ 53-73 overall record doesn’t immediately suggest value, but their 35-29 home mark makes a strong case. Their last five games sit at 2-3 with 3.4 runs per game, which is modest, yet Bryan Reynolds has been steady in run production. Playing at home, where they’ve consistently outperformed their road numbers, creates a favorable environment for them to extend their edge against Toronto.
Over their last 10, the Pirates have gone 3-7 with 3.0 runs per game, a tough stretch that drives home inconsistency. However, Andrew McCutchen’s veteran presence and Oneil Cruz’s power give this lineup volatility that can flip games quickly. Pittsburgh Pirates’ ability to pair a competitive home record with timely hitting positions them to outplay a Blue Jays team that has not traveled well.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 444
- Home Runs: 88
- OBP: 0.303
- SLG: 0.345
- OPS: 0.648
- ERA: 4.02
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 18-44 • Home Record: 35-29
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Pittsburgh Pirates lead 1–0 (Most recent game)
- August 18, 2025: TOR 2 @ PIT 5
Over/Under Trends
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.7 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates’ strong 35-29 home record, combined with Toronto’s losing road mark, creates a clear situational edge. The Pirates also took the most recent head-to-head meeting with a 5-2 win, showing they can control this matchup. With Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen anchoring the lineup and Oneil Cruz providing power, this group has the tools to capitalize at home against a Blue Jays team that has been inconsistent away from Toronto.
The Pittsburgh Pirates at +130 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Pittsburgh Pirates at 3.4 RPG and the Toronto Blue Jays at 5.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward a Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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