MLB Prediction: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals (Tuesday, August 19 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
NYM @ WSH
NYM -204
WSH +165
O/U 9.0
| Market / Trend | NYM | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -204 | +165 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-122) | +1.5 (101) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| Record | 66–58 | 50–74 |
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Updated Aug 19, 2025 02:05 PM ET • Lines: Consensus |
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More MLB picks: New York Mets · Washington Nationals
The Mets have stumbled through their last 10 games at 3-7 while averaging 5.4 runs per contest, a trend that highlights inconsistency and betting value on the other side. This matchup analysis points directly to Washington Nationals’ steadier home scoring profile and recent 5-5 stretch, where they’ve averaged 4.5 runs per game. With both lineups producing above 4.5 RPG recently, the conditions strongly favor the Nationals to take control while pushing the game toward an Over result.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Tuesday, August 19 at 06:45 PM ET at Nationals Park, a neutral setting for totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Mets: -204
- Washington Nationals: +165
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Mets: -1.5 (-122)
- Run Line — Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+101)
Latest Team Records
New York Mets: 66-58 (Win %: 0.532)
Washington Nationals: 50-74 (Win %: 0.403)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso: 0.268 AVG, 28 HR, 100 RBI
- Juan Soto: 0.251 AVG, 30 HR, 71 RBI
- Francisco Lindor: 0.259 AVG, 24 HR, 71 RBI
Washington Nationals
- James Wood: 0.258 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI
- CJ Abrams: 0.27 AVG, 16 HR, 49 RBI
- Luis Garcia Jr.: 0.263 AVG, 9 HR, 51 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets’ 2-3 mark in their last five games points to their lack of rhythm, particularly on the road where they sit at 25-34. While Pete Alonso and Juan Soto provide power, the inconsistency in run production has kept them from sustaining momentum. Their 3-7 record across the last 10 games reflects a team struggling to translate offensive bursts into consistent wins.
Francisco Lindor adds balance to the lineup, but the Mets’ road form has been a liability, dragging down their overall outlook. Even with their recent 5.6 runs per game over the last five, defensive lapses and bullpen inefficiency have eroded those gains. Against a Nationals team finding steadier production at home, the Mets’ inconsistency makes them a fade candidate.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 554
- Home Runs: 160
- OBP: 0.321
- SLG: 0.415
- OPS: 0.736
- ERA: 3.78
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 25-34 • Home Record: 41-24
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (5.4 RPG)
Washington Nationals
The Nationals’ 3-2 stretch across the last five games shows steadier form than their opponent, with 4.8 runs per game providing dependable scoring. James Wood’s power output has kept them competitive, while CJ Abrams has added timely production to stabilize the lineup. Playing at home, where they’ve logged 24 wins, the Nationals are better positioned to capitalize on the Mets’ road inefficiencies.
Over their last 10 games, Washington has gone 5-5 with 4.5 runs per contest, demonstrating balance and resilience. Luis Garcia Jr.’s contributions have rounded out the offense, ensuring multiple threats in the order. Against a Mets team that has faltered in recent weeks, the Nationals’ consistency at home makes them the sharper side.
- Batting Average: 0.244
- Total Runs Scored: 531
- Home Runs: 118
- OBP: 0.309
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.697
- ERA: 5.33
- WHIP: 1.44
Away Record: 26-36 • Home Record: 24-38
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Mets lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- June 12, 2025: WSH 3 @ NYM 4
- June 11, 2025: WSH 0 @ NYM 5
- June 10, 2025: WSH 4 @ NYM 5
- April 28, 2025: NYM 19 @ WSH 5
- April 27, 2025: NYM 7 @ WSH 8
Over/Under Trends
New York Mets’ last 10 games have averaged 11.0 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Washington Nationals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Nationals’ steadier 5-5 record across their last 10 games, paired with consistent home scoring, makes them the sharper play against a Mets side that has dropped seven of its last ten. James Wood and CJ Abrams are delivering reliable production, and the Mets’ 25-34 road mark reinforces their vulnerability away from home. Washington Nationals’ balanced offense and situational edge point firmly to them as the correct moneyline side.
We rate the Washington Nationals at +165 as the right side at current form.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Washington Nationals have produced 4.8 RPG and the New York Mets 5.6. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward a Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, DraftKings, Bovada, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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