MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins (Tuesday, August 19 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
STL @ MIA
STL +125
MIA -149
O/U 7.5
| Market / Trend | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -149 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (148) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| Record | 62–64 | 59–66 |
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Updated Aug 19, 2025 12:27 PM ET • Lines: Consensus |
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More MLB picks: St. Louis Cardinals · Miami Marlins
The Cardinals enter this matchup analysis on the back of a 1-4 skid in their last five games, yet their offense has averaged 5.6 runs per game across that stretch, signaling live bats despite losses. The Marlins, meanwhile, have stumbled to a 1-4 record with only 3.6 runs per game, exposing an inconsistent attack. This MLB prediction leans toward St. Louis leveraging its superior run production against a Miami side struggling to generate momentum, with the scoring profile pointing firmly toward the Over.
Game Time
Slated for Tuesday, August 19 at 06:40 PM ET at loanDepot Park, totals stay conservative under the roof.
Odds & Spread Line
- St. Louis Cardinals: +125
- Miami Marlins: -149
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-175)
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+148)
Latest Team Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 62-64 (Win %: 0.492)
Miami Marlins: 59-66 (Win %: 0.472)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
St. Louis Cardinals
- Alec Burleson: 0.288 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
- Willson Contreras: 0.258 AVG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.287 AVG, 10 HR, 43 RBI
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.237 AVG, 18 HR, 56 RBI
- Xavier Edwards: 0.302 AVG, 2 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals’ 1-4 record across their last five games highlights a team in need of results, but the scoring numbers tell a different story. With 5.6 runs per game in that stretch, the lineup remains potent, fueled by consistent contact hitters like Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera. This ability to generate runs even when dropping games makes them a dangerous road underdog, especially given Miami Marlins’ recent offensive inconsistency.
Looking deeper, the Cardinals’ 4-6 mark over the last 10 games shows uneven outcomes, yet the offense has maintained a 4.0 RPG baseline. Willson Contreras provides the kind of power that can change a game, and combined with steady road production, St. Louis has a clear path to capitalize against a Marlins rotation that has been hittable. Their ability to score in bunches positions them as the sharper side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 549
- Home Runs: 120
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.387
- OPS: 0.705
- ERA: 4.24
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 27-34 • Home Record: 35-30
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.0 RPG)
Miami Marlins
The Marlins’ 1-4 record in their last five games with 3.6 runs per game lays bare a lineup struggling to find rhythm. While Kyle Stowers has been the most reliable source of power, the supporting cast has not consistently delivered, leaving their offense vulnerable. At home, that inconsistency is magnified, as they’ve failed to string together sustained run production despite favorable conditions.
Over the last 10 games, Miami has slipped to 2-8, averaging 4.2 runs per contest, which reinforces the lack of momentum. Agustin Ramirez and Xavier Edwards have shown flashes, but the unit as a whole lacks the steady output needed to match St. Louis Cardinals’ stronger scoring profile. With a pitching staff that has not masked these offensive gaps, the Marlins enter this matchup as the less reliable betting side.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 539
- Home Runs: 123
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.397
- OPS: 0.712
- ERA: 4.55
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 31-34 • Home Record: 28-32
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (4.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 2–2 (Last 4 games)
- August 18, 2025: STL 8 @ MIA 3
- July 30, 2025: MIA 2 @ STL 0
- July 29, 2025: MIA 5 @ STL 0
- July 28, 2025: MIA 1 @ STL 7
Over/Under Trends
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 10.1 combined runs, with 8 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cardinals’ recent scoring edge, combined with their ability to generate offense even during losses, makes them the sharper side. Their 8-3 win in the most recent head-to-head further demonstrates their ability to exploit Miami Marlins’ pitching, while the Marlins’ 2-8 stretch and lack of consistent run support underline their vulnerabilities. With productive bats like Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson in form, St. Louis is positioned to take control of this matchup.
Trend and context support the St. Louis Cardinals at +125 as the bet.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Miami Marlins are at 3.6 RPG and the St. Louis Cardinals at 5.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward a Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bovada, BetUS, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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