Introduction

More MLB picks: Cleveland Guardians · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent stretch has produced just 1 win in their last 5 games despite averaging 4.8 runs per contest, while Cleveland has put up only 3.4 runs across the same span. This interleague matchup analysis between the American League’s Guardians and the National League’s Diamondbacks highlights a contrast in offensive rhythm and situational edges. With Cleveland showing inconsistency on the road and Arizona demonstrating more reliable run production at home, this MLB prediction leans firmly toward a Diamondbacks victory in a lower-scoring contest.

Game Time

On tap at Tuesday, August 19 at 09:40 PM ET under the roof at Chase Field, a balanced scoring environment.

Odds & Spread Line

• Cleveland Guardians: -110
• Arizona Diamondbacks: -115

Total: 9

• Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+155)
• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-190)

Latest Team Records

Cleveland Guardians: 63-60 (Win %: 0.512)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 60-65 (Win %: 0.48)

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians are missing Andrew Walters (Lat), listed as 60-Day-IL; Ben Lively (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Gabriel Moreno (Finger), listed as 60-Day-IL; Ryan Thompson (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Cleveland Guardians

• Jose Ramirez: 0.291 AVG, 25 HR, 64 RBI
• Kyle Manzardo: 0.238 AVG, 21 HR, 55 RBI
• Steven Kwan: 0.281 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Ketel Marte: 0.297 AVG, 23 HR, 56 RBI
• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.286 AVG, 13 HR, 79 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.251 AVG, 27 HR, 64 RBI

Team Analysis

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians enter this matchup at 63-60, but their recent form is neutral with a 2-3 record over the last 5 games. Averaging just 3.4 runs in that span, the offense has lacked consistency, especially on the road where their 33-29 mark shows more grind than dominance. Jose Ramirez remains the key catalyst, but he has not been supported consistently enough to keep the run totals competitive against deeper lineups.

Steven Kwan has provided steady contact, yet the lack of extended rallies has left Cleveland unable to sustain pressure across innings. Kyle Manzardo’s power has not been enough to offset the overall dip in production, and the team’s road performance signals a challenge against Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup. The Guardians’ pitching staff has kept them competitive, but without more reliable scoring, they remain a vulnerable moneyline side in this setting.

• Batting Average: 0.228
• Total Runs Scored: 488
• Home Runs: 129
• OBP: 0.3
• SLG: 0.375
• OPS: 0.675
• ERA: 3.89
• WHIP: 1.31

Away Record: 33-29 • Home Record: 31-31
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.1 RPG)

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks sit at 60-65 and have struggled with a 1-4 mark in their last 5 games, though they are still producing 4.8 runs per contest in that stretch. Their home record of 30-31 shows balance, and the offensive trio of Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and Corbin Carroll gives them more consistent scoring depth than Cleveland. Marte’s ability to deliver timely hits has anchored the lineup and allowed Arizona to stay competitive even in losses.

Perdomo’s run production combined with Carroll’s power presence creates a lineup capable of capitalizing on Cleveland Guardians’ uneven offensive rhythm. While the pitching staff has been volatile, the bats are generating nearly 6 runs per game across the last 10 contests, a level of output that puts pressure on opponents. Playing at home, with multiple reliable contributors, Arizona projects as the stronger side to back in this matchup.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 618
• Home Runs: 176
• OBP: 0.326
• SLG: 0.44
• OPS: 0.766
• ERA: 4.58
• WHIP: 1.34

Away Record: 30-35 • Home Record: 30-31
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.8 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Cleveland Guardians lead 1–0 (Most recent game)

• August 18, 2025: CLE 3 @ ARI 1

Over/Under Trends

Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 10.7 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 9.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Arizona Diamondbacks’ offensive consistency at home, powered by Ketel Marte’s timely hitting and Corbin Carroll’s power, positions them to outpace Cleveland Guardians’ inconsistent road scoring. Even with a recent 1-4 stretch, the Diamondbacks are still producing more runs per game than the Guardians and carry stronger lineup depth. With Cleveland struggling to string together offense in away contests, Arizona is the clear moneyline side to trust.

We’re backing the Arizona Diamondbacks to handle business.

Over/Under Prediction

Last five form shows the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4.8 RPG and the Cleveland Guardians at 3.4, giving context for the number.

These teams are combining for 8.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That leans to a Under 9.0.

Bookmakers

Data pulled from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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