MLB Prediction: Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians (Thursday, August 14 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
The Guardians enter this American League and National League showdown with a 7-3 surge over their last 10 games, while the Marlins have stumbled to 3-7 in the same span, creating a clear separation in current form for this MLB prediction. Cleveland Guardians’ consistent run production at home has complemented disciplined at-bats from Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, while Miami Marlins’ road form has been less convincing. With both teams averaging well over 9 combined runs per game recently, the setup favors a high-scoring contest where Cleveland Guardians’ sharper execution should dictate the outcome.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Thursday, August 14 at 06:40 PM ET inside Progressive Field, weather and wind shape scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- Miami Marlins: +110
- Cleveland Guardians: -130
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-188)
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+155)
Latest Team Records
Miami Marlins: 58-62 (Win %: 0.483)
Cleveland Guardians: 62-57 (Win %: 0.521)
Injury Report
The Miami Marlins are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Cleveland Guardians are missing Andrew Walters (Lat), listed as 60-Day-IL; Ben Lively (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.284 AVG, 25 HR, 71 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.236 AVG, 17 HR, 52 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.242 AVG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.294 AVG, 25 HR, 63 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.244 AVG, 21 HR, 53 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.275 AVG, 9 HR, 39 RBI
Team Analysis
Miami Marlins
The Marlins’ 1-4 mark over their last five games underscores a stretch where road production has not translated into wins despite averaging 4.8 runs per game in that span. Kyle Stowers has been a steady power source, but the supporting cast’s inconsistency has limited their ability to convert scoring chances into victories. Away from home, their 30-31 record reflects a middling performance level that leaves little margin against an opponent with Cleveland Guardians’ home stability.
Agustin Ramirez’s occasional extra-base impact and Otto Lopez’s situational hitting have added sparks, yet neither has been able to spark a sustained run of success during this slump. With just three wins in their last 10 contests, Miami Marlins’ offensive bursts have been offset by a pitching staff allowing too many timely hits. This combination makes them vulnerable against a Guardians lineup that has been executing more efficiently in recent weeks.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 508
- Home Runs: 113
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.393
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 4.52
- WHIP: 1.31
Away Record: 30-31 • Home Record: 28-31
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.6 RPG)
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have built a 3-2 record in their last five games, backed by 4.8 runs per game and a balanced attack. Jose Ramirez has been central to their offensive flow, delivering run production that has consistently put pressure on opposing pitchers at Progressive Field. Their 30-28 home record shows resilience, especially when combining steady scoring with a staff capable of limiting damage.
Kyle Manzardo’s power and Steven Kwan’s on-base skills have complemented Ramirez to create multiple scoring avenues. With seven wins in their last 10 outings, Cleveland Guardians’ ability to produce in key spots has been a decisive factor, particularly at home where they’ve turned close games into wins. This form, coupled with their recent efficiency, positions them strongly to capitalize on Miami Marlins’ defensive lapses.
- Batting Average: 0.228
- Total Runs Scored: 470
- Home Runs: 126
- OBP: 0.301
- SLG: 0.379
- OPS: 0.68
- ERA: 3.81
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 32-29 • Home Record: 30-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- August 13, 2025: MIA 13 @ CLE 4
- August 12, 2025: MIA 3 @ CLE 4
Over/Under Trends
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 10.4 total runs, with 8 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Cleveland Guardians’ recent 7-3 run, combined with their ability to generate nearly five runs per game and protect home field, makes them the superior side in this matchup. The combination of Jose Ramirez’s consistent production and supporting contributions from Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan gives them a multi-dimensional offense that can pressure Miami Marlins’ pitching from the start. With the Marlins struggling to string together wins on the road, Cleveland Guardians’ balance and form give them the decisive edge.
Markets point to the Cleveland Guardians as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Cleveland Guardians are at 4.8 RPG and the Miami Marlins at 4.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward a Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 14, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Avoid parlays unless edges stack; never risk what you can’t afford to lose.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
