Introduction

This MLB prediction breaks down a Saturday matinee between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. With both clubs jockeying for postseason position, expect intensity from the first pitch. Backed by road form and recent momentum, the Phillies are trending upward in this interleague clash.

Game Time

The matchup is set for Saturday, July 26 at 01:05 PM ET in the Bronx, where the Yankees will try to leverage their 30–20 home record.

Moneyline Odds

Philadelphia Phillies: -120
New York Yankees: +100
Over/Under Line: 9.5

Latest Team Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 58–44 (Win %: 0.569)
New York Yankees: 56–46 (Win %: 0.549)

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies: No major injuries reported.

New York Yankees:

• Mark Leiter Jr. (Leg)
• Ryan Yarbrough (Oblique)
• Yerry de los Santos (Elbow)
• Fernando Cruz (Oblique)
• Clarke Schmidt (Elbow)

Key Player Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

• Kyle Schwarber: .250 AVG, 34 HR, 78 RBI
• Nick Castellanos: .269 AVG, 13 HR, 55 RBI
• Trea Turner: .290 AVG, 11 HR, 41 RBI

New York Yankees

• Aaron Judge: .345 AVG, 37 HR, 84 RBI
• Cody Bellinger: .285 AVG, 18 HR, 57 RBI
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .247 AVG, 18 HR, 48 RBI

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

Winners in 3 of their last 5, the Phillies are showing sharp form and scoring consistency at the right time. Their recent run production (5.8 RPG) has been powered by Schwarber’s bat and steady contributions from Castellanos and Turner.

They’re 26–25 on the road and bringing legitimate momentum into Yankee Stadium. Their ability to produce early runs and minimize bullpen strain gives them a strong edge in this matchup.

• Batting Average: .254
• Total Runs Scored: 469
• Home Runs: 115
• OPS: .735
• ERA: 3.71
• WHIP: 1.25

Away Record: 26–25 • Home Record: 33–19
Last 5: 3–2 (5.8 RPG) • Last 10: 5–5 (5.1 RPG)

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New York Yankees

While the Yankees have one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball in Aaron Judge, their recent results haven’t kept pace. They’re just 2–3 in their last 5 and averaging only 3.8 RPG in that span.

Their 30–20 home record is still solid, but unless Bellinger or Chisholm provide additional support, this could be another tough outing. Key injuries continue to test their pitching depth.

• Batting Average: .254
• Total Runs Scored: 530
• Home Runs: 163
• OPS: .787
• ERA: 3.89
• WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 26–27 • Home Record: 30–20
Last 5: 2–3 (3.8 RPG) • Last 10: 4–6 (4.8 RPG)

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Head-to-Head History

Philadelphia Phillies lead 1–0

• 2025-07-25: PHI 12 @ NYY 5

Over/Under Trends

The Phillies’ last 10 games are averaging 9.7 total runs, with 5 games going over the posted total of 9.5.

The Yankees are trending slightly higher at 10.3 RPG over the same span, also with 5 overs.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

This Phillies vs Yankees prediction leans confidently toward the road team. Philadelphia is healthier, in better form, and producing more runs.

With value on their side at -120, this is a smart money spot for the Phillies.

Over/Under Prediction

These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — a tick above the posted total of 9.5. With both clubs showing scoring upside and the Yankees’ bullpen under pressure, this game leans toward a Over 9.5 finish.

Bookmakers

Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, Bovada.

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